Working gas in storage was 3,863 Bcf as of Friday, October 25, 2024, according to EIA estimates.
This represents a net increase of 78 Bcf from the previous week. < 11 Bcf higher than the 5-year average.
Stocks were 107 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 178 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,685 Bcf.
At 3,863 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.
My WAG (Wild Ass Guess) is now that natural gas in storage will be ~150 Bcf above the 5-year average on December 31, 2023. During Q1 2025 LNG exports should be 4 to 5 Bcf per day higher than they were in Q1 2024, so all other things being equal, LNG exports should be ~410 Bcf higher in Q1 2025 year-over-year. < 4.5 Bcf X 91 Days
Go to the link below and see slides 16 to 21 of EQT's presentation on October 30th to see how much demand for U.S. natural is going to increase during 2025 to 2030: https://ir.eqt.com/investor-relations/events-and-presentations/presentations/default.aspx
EIA Natural Gas Storage Report - Oct 31
EIA Natural Gas Storage Report - Oct 31
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: EIA Natural Gas Storage Report - Oct 31
Note from HFI Research this morning:
I hope readers have been keeping up to date with our short-term natural gas outlook articles. Following Henry Hub's December futures rallying briefly above ~$3/MMBtu last week, we published our NGF titled, "Natural Gas - A Slow Start To This Winter, The Market Is A Bit Ahead Of Itself." In it, we said:
We will likely get production to average close to ~103 Bcf/d this weekend before moving even higher in November. Matterhorn is now moving ~1.4 Bcf/d, so there's another ~1.1 Bcf/d to go. The expected increase combined with the delays we saw in TILs this summer will push Lower 48 gas production back to ~106 Bcf/d.
We suspect this production increase coupled with the mildly bearish weather outlook will be terrible for natural gas.
Fast forwarding to today, December futures have fallen materially to $2.737/MMBtu, and Lower 48 gas production averaged over ~103 Bcf/d last weekend and on pace to reach ~104 Bcf/d by next week.
In my view, the bearish price action we are seeing in natural gas today is far from over. Not only is Lower 48 gas production expected to increase into year-end, but every natural gas producer that has reported so far is guiding to higher production for 2025. This wasn't unexpected as every producer that curtailed production noted that when prices rebound, they would boost production again. So with this backdrop and the weather outlook remaining bearish, who can blame traders for selling natural gas prices? This is especially the case when the futures curve was steeply in contango.
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MY TAKE: U.S. natural gas prices won't firm up until we see the first wave of really cold weather move through the NE quarter of the U.S. At this time of year it always the weather that determines gas prices. We also need to see LNG exports ramp up.
I hope readers have been keeping up to date with our short-term natural gas outlook articles. Following Henry Hub's December futures rallying briefly above ~$3/MMBtu last week, we published our NGF titled, "Natural Gas - A Slow Start To This Winter, The Market Is A Bit Ahead Of Itself." In it, we said:
We will likely get production to average close to ~103 Bcf/d this weekend before moving even higher in November. Matterhorn is now moving ~1.4 Bcf/d, so there's another ~1.1 Bcf/d to go. The expected increase combined with the delays we saw in TILs this summer will push Lower 48 gas production back to ~106 Bcf/d.
We suspect this production increase coupled with the mildly bearish weather outlook will be terrible for natural gas.
Fast forwarding to today, December futures have fallen materially to $2.737/MMBtu, and Lower 48 gas production averaged over ~103 Bcf/d last weekend and on pace to reach ~104 Bcf/d by next week.
In my view, the bearish price action we are seeing in natural gas today is far from over. Not only is Lower 48 gas production expected to increase into year-end, but every natural gas producer that has reported so far is guiding to higher production for 2025. This wasn't unexpected as every producer that curtailed production noted that when prices rebound, they would boost production again. So with this backdrop and the weather outlook remaining bearish, who can blame traders for selling natural gas prices? This is especially the case when the futures curve was steeply in contango.
--------------------
MY TAKE: U.S. natural gas prices won't firm up until we see the first wave of really cold weather move through the NE quarter of the U.S. At this time of year it always the weather that determines gas prices. We also need to see LNG exports ramp up.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: EIA Natural Gas Storage Report - Oct 31
The Path to Electrification Will Be Paved in Natural Gas
Keith Kohl | Oct 31, 2024
This week we’ve been looking at those overlooked sleeper investments that every one of us craves for in our portfolio.
That feeling of finally pinpointing an underdog in the market, finding that quiet part of the sector that is due for a resurgence.
In many ways, the cat is finally out of the bag when it comes to the role that nuclear power will play in meeting our future power demand needs. Make no mistake, dear reader, the world is going to be using A LOT of electric power in the years and decades to come as we push for the electrification of anything and everything under the sun… from cars to buildings. No corner of the market is immune to its draw.
Truth is, we’ve been slowly moving down a path to electrification, except now things are starting to accelerate — quickly.
In fact, our electric power demand is ramping up so fast that it’ll finally push one underdog investment back into the limelight.
Are you ready for our natural gas-fueled future?
If I were asked to name one beaten down commodity that has been pummeled into a bloody pulp time and time again for seemingly forever, my first and immediate response would be: Natural gas!
You know this sad story just as well as I do, and the veteran members of our investment community probably know by now what’s about to come next.
But first, let’s quickly lay the groundwork…
The real story of our natural gas fortunes goes back more than a decade, when drillers started utilizing both horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing to tap into the tight rock formations that held an immense amount of oil and natural gas.
Within a few short years, U.S. natural gas production surged higher, with output more than doubling since 2006. I know a lot of people out there like to attribute the death of the U.S. coal industry to renewables like wind and solar, but the real coal killer was cheap, plentiful natural gas.
You can bet none of that natural gas was wasted. Not only does natural gas make up 36% of the United States’ energy consumption, but it also accounts for 42% of our electric power sector.
Thing is, we’re going to need a lot more of that juice going forward — there’s no shortage of bullish sentiment for U.S. power markets.
You see, all that new demand generated by AI data centers is going to have to come from somewhere. And even though Big Tech is turning to nuclear power for the answer, the cold, hard truth is that it will take years to not only develop the next-gen tech like small modular reactors, but also construct new traditional nuclear capacity.
In other words, no full transition is going to take place overnight. Even setting up the massive amount of solar and wind capacity will take years.
Up until this point, there hasn’t been much concern over our true bridge (natural gas) away from fossil fuels. After all, there is a double-edged sword when it comes to natural gas production. We’ve been able to reliably tap into immense shale gas formations like the Marcellus for more than a decade, and the amount of associated gas that accompanied the oil boom flooded the market with new supply.
We had so much natural gas at our fingertips that we became the world’s largest exporter of LNG within a few short years.
Nothing could go wrong… or could it?
The days of a natural gas supply glut may be nearing an end. If our shale gas production continues at the same pace it’s been all year, we’ll witness the first year-over-year production decline since the EIA started collecting this data 24 years ago.
Keep in mind that our tight gas formations account for nearly 80% of the United States’ dry gas production.
That may be a more frightening thought than most can imagine.
Remember, electric power demand from AI data centers is exploding higher; Goldman Sachs is projecting data center power demand will grow 160% over the next six years.
In fact, natural gas demand is projected to grow by 10 billion cubic feet per day between now and 2030 simply from data center demand and planned coal plant retirements. < In addition to this, U.S. LNG export capacity will increase by 20 Bcfpd from 14.5 Bcfpd to 34.9 Bcfpd by the end of 2030 if all the LNG export facilities that are planned today get built; more than half of them are already fully approved. Trump will fast track the rest of them.
I’d give you three guesses as to what would happen if natural gas production continues to decline going forward, but I have a feeling you’ll only need one.
It’s certainly enough to make you look twice at this underdog investment.
Until next time,
Keith Kohl Signature
Keith Kohl
Keith Kohl | Oct 31, 2024
This week we’ve been looking at those overlooked sleeper investments that every one of us craves for in our portfolio.
That feeling of finally pinpointing an underdog in the market, finding that quiet part of the sector that is due for a resurgence.
In many ways, the cat is finally out of the bag when it comes to the role that nuclear power will play in meeting our future power demand needs. Make no mistake, dear reader, the world is going to be using A LOT of electric power in the years and decades to come as we push for the electrification of anything and everything under the sun… from cars to buildings. No corner of the market is immune to its draw.
Truth is, we’ve been slowly moving down a path to electrification, except now things are starting to accelerate — quickly.
In fact, our electric power demand is ramping up so fast that it’ll finally push one underdog investment back into the limelight.
Are you ready for our natural gas-fueled future?
If I were asked to name one beaten down commodity that has been pummeled into a bloody pulp time and time again for seemingly forever, my first and immediate response would be: Natural gas!
You know this sad story just as well as I do, and the veteran members of our investment community probably know by now what’s about to come next.
But first, let’s quickly lay the groundwork…
The real story of our natural gas fortunes goes back more than a decade, when drillers started utilizing both horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing to tap into the tight rock formations that held an immense amount of oil and natural gas.
Within a few short years, U.S. natural gas production surged higher, with output more than doubling since 2006. I know a lot of people out there like to attribute the death of the U.S. coal industry to renewables like wind and solar, but the real coal killer was cheap, plentiful natural gas.
You can bet none of that natural gas was wasted. Not only does natural gas make up 36% of the United States’ energy consumption, but it also accounts for 42% of our electric power sector.
Thing is, we’re going to need a lot more of that juice going forward — there’s no shortage of bullish sentiment for U.S. power markets.
You see, all that new demand generated by AI data centers is going to have to come from somewhere. And even though Big Tech is turning to nuclear power for the answer, the cold, hard truth is that it will take years to not only develop the next-gen tech like small modular reactors, but also construct new traditional nuclear capacity.
In other words, no full transition is going to take place overnight. Even setting up the massive amount of solar and wind capacity will take years.
Up until this point, there hasn’t been much concern over our true bridge (natural gas) away from fossil fuels. After all, there is a double-edged sword when it comes to natural gas production. We’ve been able to reliably tap into immense shale gas formations like the Marcellus for more than a decade, and the amount of associated gas that accompanied the oil boom flooded the market with new supply.
We had so much natural gas at our fingertips that we became the world’s largest exporter of LNG within a few short years.
Nothing could go wrong… or could it?
The days of a natural gas supply glut may be nearing an end. If our shale gas production continues at the same pace it’s been all year, we’ll witness the first year-over-year production decline since the EIA started collecting this data 24 years ago.
Keep in mind that our tight gas formations account for nearly 80% of the United States’ dry gas production.
That may be a more frightening thought than most can imagine.
Remember, electric power demand from AI data centers is exploding higher; Goldman Sachs is projecting data center power demand will grow 160% over the next six years.
In fact, natural gas demand is projected to grow by 10 billion cubic feet per day between now and 2030 simply from data center demand and planned coal plant retirements. < In addition to this, U.S. LNG export capacity will increase by 20 Bcfpd from 14.5 Bcfpd to 34.9 Bcfpd by the end of 2030 if all the LNG export facilities that are planned today get built; more than half of them are already fully approved. Trump will fast track the rest of them.
I’d give you three guesses as to what would happen if natural gas production continues to decline going forward, but I have a feeling you’ll only need one.
It’s certainly enough to make you look twice at this underdog investment.
Until next time,
Keith Kohl Signature
Keith Kohl
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: EIA Natural Gas Storage Report - Oct 31
According to recent company reports the following should be considered amongst the two largest natural gas producers Expand Energy Corp and EQT.
EXE currently has 1 BCFpd of deferred turn in line wells and 600-800 MCFpd of DUC's that will be completed when the market appears receptive to these volumes.
According to EQT, they have over this year opportunistically been curtailing up to 1 BCFpd of production in basin which they stae has been fully back online for the next couple of weeks.
It appears that many other producers includin Comstoch have deferred/curtailed production so in my humble view it is not yet time to get the pom poms out but that time may not be far off if we get the right guy into office.
EXE currently has 1 BCFpd of deferred turn in line wells and 600-800 MCFpd of DUC's that will be completed when the market appears receptive to these volumes.
According to EQT, they have over this year opportunistically been curtailing up to 1 BCFpd of production in basin which they stae has been fully back online for the next couple of weeks.
It appears that many other producers includin Comstoch have deferred/curtailed production so in my humble view it is not yet time to get the pom poms out but that time may not be far off if we get the right guy into office.
Re: EIA Natural Gas Storage Report - Oct 31
We need a normal (cold) winter and LNG exports to ramp up. Short term goal is to just get HH NGas over $3.00, but long-term outlook is much brighter. Demand should exceed supply because so many basins have takeaway bottlenecks.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group