Oil & Gas Prices - Nov 4

[dan_s]

Trading Economics:

WTI crude oil futures surged 3% to $71.50 per barrel on Monday following OPEC+'s decision to postpone planned output increases by a month. The group announced it would extend its current output cut of 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) into December, delaying an earlier planned increase of 180,000 bpd due to falling prices and weak demand. < Compared to the global demand for oil of 104.4 million bpd (as shown on page 3 of totals newsletter, an increase of just 0.18 million bpd is just a rounding error.
> Additionally, there are concerns about a potential retaliatory strike by Iran on Israel in the coming days.
> Market attention is also focused on the US presidential election set for Tuesday, where polls indicate a tight race between Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican former President Donald Trump. < If this election is close, the IQ of the American voters is lower than I thought. Anyone with a brain knows that Kamala does not deserve a promotion.
> Furthermore, economists anticipate a 25 bps interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve on Thursday.
> In China, the National People’s Congress will meet this week to discuss additional stimulus measures aimed at bolstering the slowing economy, primarily to address local government debt.

The front month US natural gas futures contract (DEC24) is up $0.09 to 2.75/MMBtu at the time of this post, after declining sharply last week from the over four-month-high of $3.10 amid lower risk premiums and evidence of ample domestic supply.
> Shifting perceptions on supply risks from the Middle East triggered declines in natural gas futures among major trading hubs, largely due to Israel’s choice of striking Iran’s oil infrastructure and Tehran’s refrain from further retaliation so far.
> This compounded data from Wood Mackenzie suggesting that US production rose to 103 bcf per day in late October, near record highs. This was in line with the ample increase in reserves during the fourth week of the month, with EIA data pointing to a 78 bcf build.
> In the meantime, expectations of more moderate cold weather in the Lower 48 states limited demand for gas-intensive heating, also pressuring prices.

[aja57]

"If this election is close, the IQ of the American voters is lower than I thought. Anyone with a brain knows that Kamala does not deserve a promotion."

It's not the IQ of the voter, it's the FQ of the Establishment. (fraud quotient)

[dan_s]

As pointed out in my newsletter, why would 14 states run by Democrats not require any form of ID to vote? The only logical reason is that it gives them more opportunity to cheat. For example, one person in California can go to multiple polling sites and vote for all Democrats. They just have to get names from the phone book of people that live in that area.