Oil & Gas Prices - Nov. 18

[dan_s]

Oil Price volatility will remain the norm at least until Trump is sworn in.
Noise level is high and the Paper Traders are loving the well defined trading range for WTI between $67 and $72.
Natural Gas Prices are all about the weather between now and year-end. Looks like some "REAL WINTER" is moving eastward.

Trading Economics
Oil
WTI crude oil futures surged 3% to $69 per barrel on Monday following news of a production halt at Norway’s Johan Sverdrup oilfield, Western Europe’s largest, due to an onshore power outage.
> This unexpected shutdown raised concerns about tightening supply in the North Sea crude market.
> The gains were also fueled by escalating tensions in the Russia-Ukraine war, as Russia launched its biggest air strike in nearly three months, severely damaging Ukraine’s power infrastructure.
> Last week, oil prices had dropped over 3% due to weak Chinese economic data and a forecast by the International Energy Agency predicting a global oil supply surplus by 2025. < IEA is up to it usual goal of lowering oil prices by under-estimating demand. OPEC+ has control of the global oil market.
> China’s refinery activity declined 4.6% in October, and factory output growth slowed, adding to worries.
> Additionally, investors remained cautious about the uncertain pace of U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, which has added volatility to global markets.

Natural Gas
US natural gas futures rose toward $2.9/MMBtu, driven by expectations of increased demand as colder weather sets in and a dip in production.
> As temperatures drop, gas consumption typically rises, contributing to higher prices.
> Additionally, US LNG export activity has picked up, with daily gas flows to export plants rising to a 10-month high last Friday.
> Natural gas exports to the seven major LNG export plants average 13.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in November, up from 13.1 bcfd in October, reflecting stronger demand for US natural gas abroad. < U.S. total LNG export capacity should be 17.8 Bcfpd in Q1 2025 when Cheniere's Train 3 is online at Corpus Christi in six weeks.
> Additionally, natural gas production in the Lower 48 states decreased to 100.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in November from 101.3 bcfd in October.
> Meanwhile, recent EIA data showed that US utilities added 42 billion cubic feet of gas to storage in the week ending November 8, leaving inventories 6.1% above the seasonal average.

[dan_s]

Prompt-Month Henry Hub (Dec 24) was up $0.150 on the day, to settle at $2.973
Prompt-Month WTI (Dec 24) was up $2.14 on the day, to settle at $69.16