Jerry Jones called it right investing 200 million in CRK at $8-$9 a share a few months ago. Now up over 84%. Trump will take the ban off Natural Gas exports and now the Green Unicorn Folks understand that Natural Gas is needed to close the gap for powering AI. The Silicon Valley folks are no longer worried about Climate Change. Money talks and bovine scatology walks.
I do recall a sage or two bad mouthing CRK daily. Like those who thought Kamala was going to win?
Jerry Jones, CRK and Natural Gas
Re: Jerry Jones, CRK and Natural Gas
Where there is significant risk, there can be significant reward. Congrats to those who joined JJ on the sub $10 buy. I stayed on the sidelines on this one.
Re: Jerry Jones, CRK and Natural Gas
TipRanks: "In the last 3 months, 7 ranked analysts set 12-month price targets for CRK. The average price target among the analysts is $10.00. The 7 price targets range from $5 to $14."
CRK still has "Concentration Risk" because 99% of its production is dry gas, so very little price uplift from NGL's
If U.S. natural gas does average $3.50 in 2025, CRK will be a profitable company and it holds valuable acreage in the Haynesville.
I do think there are much better ways to add more exposure to rising natural gas prices than CRK.
EQT is getting a bit ahead of itself. AR, CTRA, RRC, CRGY and Spartan Delta (DALXF) look good.
If you think Canadian natural gas prices will rebound (I do), then InPlay Oil looks very good to me. Doug Bartole, InPlay's CEO will be joining me on tomorrow's webinar.
CRK still has "Concentration Risk" because 99% of its production is dry gas, so very little price uplift from NGL's
If U.S. natural gas does average $3.50 in 2025, CRK will be a profitable company and it holds valuable acreage in the Haynesville.
I do think there are much better ways to add more exposure to rising natural gas prices than CRK.
EQT is getting a bit ahead of itself. AR, CTRA, RRC, CRGY and Spartan Delta (DALXF) look good.
If you think Canadian natural gas prices will rebound (I do), then InPlay Oil looks very good to me. Doug Bartole, InPlay's CEO will be joining me on tomorrow's webinar.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
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Petroleum economist
- Posts: 210
- Joined: Wed Aug 23, 2023 7:01 am
- Location: The Netherlands
Re: Jerry Jones, CRK and Natural Gas
There are always one or two shares whose share price movements escape my logic. Comstock is one of them. Comstock is up 75% in 2024 while it is heading in 2024 for a negative eps -$ 0.10-0.17.
I assume like most people that natural gas prices will recover, starting in Q4. In the case of Comstock, the proceeds of the gas revenues in 2026 and 2027 will have go towards rebuilding the balance sheet This means that Comstock will not be paying dividends in 2025, 2026 and depending on the rate of gas price recovery possible not even 2027.
No doubt the Comstock profits and balance sheet will recover over time, but I believe the share price increase has already pre-emptied most of that.
If you want to have a gas producer in our portfolio, then, I think Peyto Exploration and NuVista Energy (both Canada) are better choices. In the US I would prefer Gulfport Energy and Expand Energy over Comstock. All have far better balance sheets than Comstock and will return earlier funds to shareholders.
I assume like most people that natural gas prices will recover, starting in Q4. In the case of Comstock, the proceeds of the gas revenues in 2026 and 2027 will have go towards rebuilding the balance sheet This means that Comstock will not be paying dividends in 2025, 2026 and depending on the rate of gas price recovery possible not even 2027.
No doubt the Comstock profits and balance sheet will recover over time, but I believe the share price increase has already pre-emptied most of that.
If you want to have a gas producer in our portfolio, then, I think Peyto Exploration and NuVista Energy (both Canada) are better choices. In the US I would prefer Gulfport Energy and Expand Energy over Comstock. All have far better balance sheets than Comstock and will return earlier funds to shareholders.
Regards
Harry
Harry
Re: Jerry Jones, CRK and Natural Gas
Thanks to everyone for shedding some light on CRK.
Cliff
Cliff
Re: Jerry Jones, CRK and Natural Gas
If you listen to CRK’s conference call you find that management even calls the Western Haynesville an exploration play. In other words they have not proved the play to be economic at foreseeable prices. Will JJ be a sucker or a wizard? He certainly has put down his chips. In my view $6 gas might prove it up but as stated above there are more than a couple of tried,true, and less speculative ways to play the potential gas bull market ahead.