Natural Gas: We could see more than a 150 Bcf draw

[dan_s]

Based on the forecast below we should see a draw of 150 to 200 Bcf from U.S. storage for the week ending December 6.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/cold-start-to-december-arctic-air-threatens-midwest-and-east-with-freezing-temperatures/ar-AA1uJmmz

"Late November and early December look to be unusually cold across the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes region, and into the East, forecasts show. Temperatures may drop to at least 20°F below average for the time of year from the Plains and Upper Midwest east to Michigan, and — to a lesser extent — southeast from Ohio to the Mid-Atlantic region."

If the weather pattern holds, natural gas in storage will be less than 100 Bcf above the 5 year average by Christmas. Keep in mind that demand for U.S. natural gas will be MUCH HIGHER in Q1 2025 than the 5-year average is we just have average temperatures in Q1 because LNG exports will be 5 Bcfpd higher year-over-year in Q1.

[dan_s]

Watch this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WJEAxADZA8s

Fast forward to minute 35 to see that Raymond James believes natural gas prices will go much higher in 2H 2025.