EQT Corp. (EQT) Valuation Update - Jan 21

[dan_s]

On January 16th, the day the FEB25 NYMEX contract for HH natural gas spiked to $4.30/MMBtu, Bob Brackett at Bernstein raised EQT to a BUY with a price target of $73.00. I am bullish on U.S. natural gas, but not that bullish.

I took a hard look at EQT this afternoon. I have increased my current valuation to $58.00/share.

EQT is the largest "Gasser" in the Sweet 16 with current production over 6.3 Bcf per day. Its current production mix is approximately 94.2% natural gas, 5.4% NGLs and 0.4% condensate that sells at about a $14/bbl discount to WTI.

My updated forecast/valuation model will be posted to the EPG website this evening.

Size does matter in this business, so investors looking for exposure to natural gas will see EQT as a good choice.

They've hedged a lot of 2025 production (over 3 Bcfpd) with Swaps, which does lower the commodity price risk.