Natural Gas Prices - Feb 14

[dan_s]

At the time of this post, the front month NYMEX contract (MAR25) for HH natural gas was trading at $3.75/MMBtu.

Trading Economics:
US natural gas futures climbed to $3.75/MMBtu, the highest in three weeks, driven by rising LNG exports, lower output, and colder weather forecasts.
> Gas flows to the eight major U.S. LNG export plants averaged 15.3 bcfd so far in February, up from 14.6 bcfd in January, nearing record levels.
> On Thursday, daily LNG feedgas was set to hit 15.9 bcfd, surpassing the previous high of 15.8 bcfd on January 18.
> Meanwhile, extreme cold froze some wells, causing daily gas output to drop by 3.7 bcfd over the past week to a two-week low of 103.0 bcfd. < The number of well freeze offs will increase next week as temperatures in Appalachia (Marcellus & Utica Shale Plays) go into the low teens on Monday.
> Looking ahead, weather forecasts indicate colder-than-normal temperatures through February 22, boosting heating demand.
> Additionally, the EIA reported that US utilities withdrew 100 bcf of natural gas from storage in the week ending February 7, reducing total inventories to 2,297 bcf, more than the expected 92 bcf draw.

Celsius Energy's updated forecasts for draws from U.S. natural gas storage over the next 4 weeks is now a total of 705 Bcf. If so, natural gas in storage on March 7th will be 1,592 Bcf, 353 Bcf below the 5-year average.

The 5-year average amount of natural gas in storage at the end of the winter heating season (March 31) is approximately 1,650 Bcf.

MY TAKE: If natural gas in storage is 350 Bcf below the 5-year average heading into the refill season on 3-31-2025, we will see $4.00/MMBtu gas prices in Q2. If storage builds in April are lower than the 5-year average (likely thanks to increasing LNG exports), we may see $5.00/MMBtu by the end of Q2.

[dan_s]

Great News!

FEAR of Global Warming is fading fast.

Listen to the comments from Irina Slav at the link in the previous post. Even the Europeans are starting to figure it out.

FEAR is a powerful emotion that has been used throughout history to control the "common folk". Now that the Climate Change FEAR is no longer working, the Democrats are using FEAR of Elon Musk in an attempt to control "The cattle". However, the majority of Americans with half of brain actually want to reduce wasteful spending.

[dan_s]

Propane prices have increased 0.14 USD/GAL or 18.61% since the beginning of 2025, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Historically, Propane reached an all-time high of 1.67 in February of 2014.

At the time of this post, Propane was trading at $0.92178/gallon or $38.715/barrel.

February weather has been and continues to be bullish for propane. Rural areas in the middle of the U.S. are the primary consumers for propane for space heating and cooking.

Demand for U.S. NGLs continues to grow. In the last few years there has been a significant increase exports of U.S. NGLs. That trend should continue.