U.S. Oil Production declined in January per EIA report

[dan_s]

Notes below are from HFI on April 1:

First and foremost, US oil production fell in January 2025 due to materially colder-than-normal weather. The EIA petroleum supply monthly reported US crude oil production for January 2025 at 13.146 million b/d.
> The adjustment came in at -0.477 million b/d yielding net crude supplies of 12.669 million b/d.

Looking at our real-time US crude oil production figures, US crude oil production rebounded back to ~13.2 million b/d in February. < Which is less than 400,000 bpd higher than where U.S. oil peaked in November 2019 just before the big decline caused by the Covid 19 Pandemic.

Since the rebound, US crude oil production has failed to gain traction with March data showing flat month-over-month. This reinforces what we wrote at the end of 2024 when we said weak exit production growth foreshadows a weak Q1.

Keep in mind that December 2024 showed real US crude oil production of 13.172 million b/d (crude + adjustment). In essence, we've stayed flat to slightly down since December.

Associated Gas Production Outpaces

Associated natural gas production continues to outpace the growth we are seeing from the crude side.

In our most up-to-date US crude oil production composite index, it is becoming evident that associated gas production has completely disconnected from crude. In fact, you can almost make the argument that producers are trying their best to squeeze more crude oil out of each well, but to no avail. < Most of the ~40 upstream oil & gas companies that I follow closely are reporting higher gas-to-oil ratios each quarter.

This divergence became the most apparent in early 2024 when we first wrote about it.

[dan_s]

On the most recent Sweet 16 summary Excel spreadsheet (under the Sweet 16 tab on the EPG website) I have added the production mix of each company on the far right of the Tab 2 & 3 spreadsheets. I show the mix between crude oil, natural gas, and NGLs.