(Reuters) - Goldman Sachs lowered its forecast for Brent crude's average price this year by 5.5% to $69 a barrel and for WTI prices by 4.3% to $66, citing the risks of higher OPEC+ supply and the global trade war triggering a recession.
The Wall Street brokerage also chopped its 2026 average price forecast for Brent by 9% to $62 and for WTI by 6.3% to $59, and warned that the new estimates could be lowered further.
"The risks to our reduced oil price forecast are to the downside, especially for 2026, given growing risks of recession and to a lesser extent of higher OPEC+ supply," Goldman analysts said in a note.
Read more: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/goldman-cuts-oil-price-forecasts-amid-tariff-fears-higher-opec-supply/ar-AA1Ch4hj
My Q2 2025 forecasts are based on WTI averaging $67.50/bbl.
Oil Price Forecast - April 5
Oil Price Forecast - April 5
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
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Petroleum economist
- Posts: 375
- Joined: Wed Aug 23, 2023 7:01 am
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Re: Oil Price Forecast - April 5
Below is an article from the Oman Observes on the latest OPEC cuts.
I have worked in Oman for many years and the sources of Oman Observer articles are impeccable. Oman is not an OPEC member, but is aligned with its production cuts.
To note from the article:
(1) The increases start in May, not April. The increase brought forward the planned increases from three months into a single month increase of 411,000 bpd. The acceleration came as OPEC sees a sustained market recovery.
(2) The increase is only valid for one month and will be reviewed on the 5th of May.
(3) The upcoming review will consider market conditions, conformity, and compensation
MUSCAT, APRIL 6, Oman Observer - Omans-oil-output-target-for-may-raised-to-768k-bpd
Oman’s oil production is set to rise to 768,000 barrels per day (bpd) in May 2025 following a decision by Opec+ member countries to continue the phased rollback of previous voluntary production cuts.
The increase is part of a broader move by eight Opec+ countries, including non-Opec producer Oman, to raise output in response to improving market fundamentals and a healthier global demand outlook.
Higher oil prices over the past year have contributed positively to Oman’s economy improving market fundamentals and a healthier global demand outlook. In a virtual meeting held on April 3, 2025, the energy ministers of the Sultanate of Oman, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan and Algeria agreed to implement a 411,000 bpd increase in collective oil production during May.
This marks a continuation of the production adjustments agreed upon in December 2024 and reaffirmed in March 2025, which outlined a gradual and flexible return of the 2.2 million bpd in voluntary cuts announced back in April and November 2023
Under the agreement, Oman’s production ceiling for May 2025 has been set at 768,000 bpd, an increase reflecting three monthly increments—the originally planned increase for May, along with two additional monthly increases brought forward in light of sustained market recovery.
The decision to front-load these increments was made to ensure the group’s continued support of market stability and to provide flexibility to respond to changing demand trends. The move comes as Oman works to balance its fiscal needs with its long-standing support for coordinated market action under the OPEC+ framework. Higher oil prices over the past year have contributed positively to Oman’s economy, and the gradual return of production provides an opportunity to further capitalize on strong demand without compromising market stability.
According to the Opec+ statement, the eight producers have also confirmed their intention to “fully compensate any overproduced volume since January 2024 and to submit updated front-loaded compensation plans to the Opec Secretariat by 15 April 2025”.
In addition, the eight Opec+ countries will hold monthly meetings to review market conditions, conformity, and compensation. They will meet on May 5 to decide on June production levels.
The adjusted production targets of the other seven Opec+ countries for May are as follows: Algeria – 919K bpd, Iraq – 4,049K bpd, Kuwait – 2,443K bpd, Saudi Arabia – 9,200K bpd, UAE – 3,015K bpd, Kazakhstan - 1,486k bpd, and Russia – 9,083K bpd.
I have worked in Oman for many years and the sources of Oman Observer articles are impeccable. Oman is not an OPEC member, but is aligned with its production cuts.
To note from the article:
(1) The increases start in May, not April. The increase brought forward the planned increases from three months into a single month increase of 411,000 bpd. The acceleration came as OPEC sees a sustained market recovery.
(2) The increase is only valid for one month and will be reviewed on the 5th of May.
(3) The upcoming review will consider market conditions, conformity, and compensation
MUSCAT, APRIL 6, Oman Observer - Omans-oil-output-target-for-may-raised-to-768k-bpd
Oman’s oil production is set to rise to 768,000 barrels per day (bpd) in May 2025 following a decision by Opec+ member countries to continue the phased rollback of previous voluntary production cuts.
The increase is part of a broader move by eight Opec+ countries, including non-Opec producer Oman, to raise output in response to improving market fundamentals and a healthier global demand outlook.
Higher oil prices over the past year have contributed positively to Oman’s economy improving market fundamentals and a healthier global demand outlook. In a virtual meeting held on April 3, 2025, the energy ministers of the Sultanate of Oman, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan and Algeria agreed to implement a 411,000 bpd increase in collective oil production during May.
This marks a continuation of the production adjustments agreed upon in December 2024 and reaffirmed in March 2025, which outlined a gradual and flexible return of the 2.2 million bpd in voluntary cuts announced back in April and November 2023
Under the agreement, Oman’s production ceiling for May 2025 has been set at 768,000 bpd, an increase reflecting three monthly increments—the originally planned increase for May, along with two additional monthly increases brought forward in light of sustained market recovery.
The decision to front-load these increments was made to ensure the group’s continued support of market stability and to provide flexibility to respond to changing demand trends. The move comes as Oman works to balance its fiscal needs with its long-standing support for coordinated market action under the OPEC+ framework. Higher oil prices over the past year have contributed positively to Oman’s economy, and the gradual return of production provides an opportunity to further capitalize on strong demand without compromising market stability.
According to the Opec+ statement, the eight producers have also confirmed their intention to “fully compensate any overproduced volume since January 2024 and to submit updated front-loaded compensation plans to the Opec Secretariat by 15 April 2025”.
In addition, the eight Opec+ countries will hold monthly meetings to review market conditions, conformity, and compensation. They will meet on May 5 to decide on June production levels.
The adjusted production targets of the other seven Opec+ countries for May are as follows: Algeria – 919K bpd, Iraq – 4,049K bpd, Kuwait – 2,443K bpd, Saudi Arabia – 9,200K bpd, UAE – 3,015K bpd, Kazakhstan - 1,486k bpd, and Russia – 9,083K bpd.
Last edited by Petroleum economist on Mon Apr 07, 2025 1:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Harry
Re: Oil Price Forecast - April 5
I heard that ~50 countries have contacted the White House and are willing to negotiate better trade terms. The "Trump Tariffs" are just what he does to get negotiations started.
It will be easy for most countries to drop their tariffs on the U.S. because we don't make much to export anymore, which is why we have a massive trade deficit.
FEAR of this "Tariff War" and FEAR that OPEC+ is going to flood the market with oil are WAY OVERBLOWN. Global demand for oil ALWAYS INCREASES in May because 90% of humans live in the northern hemisphere. OPEC's analysts know that oil demand is going up and they know that non-OPEC production growth is going to disappoint. The EIA confirms each week that U.S. petroleum inventories are below the 5-year average AND we use more oil-based products today than the 5-year average.
It will be easy for most countries to drop their tariffs on the U.S. because we don't make much to export anymore, which is why we have a massive trade deficit.
FEAR of this "Tariff War" and FEAR that OPEC+ is going to flood the market with oil are WAY OVERBLOWN. Global demand for oil ALWAYS INCREASES in May because 90% of humans live in the northern hemisphere. OPEC's analysts know that oil demand is going up and they know that non-OPEC production growth is going to disappoint. The EIA confirms each week that U.S. petroleum inventories are below the 5-year average AND we use more oil-based products today than the 5-year average.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group