Two weeks ago, every guest on financial news networks swore the world was doomed and the American economy was falling off a cliff. Today, markets are up over 20% from the lows.
The S&P 500 Index is up 6% from the day that Trump announced his tariffs. Only Democrats hate this news.
What happened to the recesssion?
What happened to the recesssion?
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: What happened to the recesssion?
In today’s edition of The Turning Point Larry McDonald announced the ‘Raise Cash Alert is High” based on:
“over the weekend we have a) the U.S. Treasury Secretary instructing Walmart to “eat” some tariffs, b) the reconciliation bill failing in the House, and c) a Moody’s credit downgrade tossed on Uncle Sam. David Tepper reminds us, when three bearish things happen at once following an exponential move higher in equities, it’s orders magnitude more bearish than just one of those things. Given the location of the market, this weekend's developments together mean a whole lot more.”
David Hay has recently giving regular similar warnings.
Translated there may sooner come a time to pick up your favorite names at substantially reduced prices. And it is not a time to have all your chips in the pot.
Just some thoughts from two seasoned experts. Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway has a record cash stash and he certainly has a long history of building wealth when many investors are running for the exits.
“over the weekend we have a) the U.S. Treasury Secretary instructing Walmart to “eat” some tariffs, b) the reconciliation bill failing in the House, and c) a Moody’s credit downgrade tossed on Uncle Sam. David Tepper reminds us, when three bearish things happen at once following an exponential move higher in equities, it’s orders magnitude more bearish than just one of those things. Given the location of the market, this weekend's developments together mean a whole lot more.”
David Hay has recently giving regular similar warnings.
Translated there may sooner come a time to pick up your favorite names at substantially reduced prices. And it is not a time to have all your chips in the pot.
Just some thoughts from two seasoned experts. Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway has a record cash stash and he certainly has a long history of building wealth when many investors are running for the exits.
Re: What happened to the recesssion?
Between the S&P forward PE ratio and the S&P Schiller Cape ratio, this market is upside down. Granted Moody’s downgrade was transparently political but long term rates are going up. The question is how high and what happens to the next bank (think Bank of America) that has to mark to market their bonds in their portfolio. Some bank will get bailed out. 9 trillion Treasury bonds due this year and 1 trillion in corporate paper due to get refinanced. Prepare for some crazy volatility.
Watched an interesting podcast on investing during a “Fourth Turning” with Russell Napier hosted by Grant Williams. Napier believes that during this 100 year pivot the key is no longer growth stocks/ bonds but value stocks + gold (commodities) . Since many countries are trying to recapitalize their manufacturing base he is high on materials , industrials. From a valuation standpoint, Europe and Emerging Markets. He ,like Rick Rule believes that the world is just starting to see the early energy of a massive bull run in gold (insurance against the declining purchasing power of the $) gold miners, silver ,silver miners, platinum, copper, zinc, nickel ,uranium and natural gas. Time to buckle up.
Watched an interesting podcast on investing during a “Fourth Turning” with Russell Napier hosted by Grant Williams. Napier believes that during this 100 year pivot the key is no longer growth stocks/ bonds but value stocks + gold (commodities) . Since many countries are trying to recapitalize their manufacturing base he is high on materials , industrials. From a valuation standpoint, Europe and Emerging Markets. He ,like Rick Rule believes that the world is just starting to see the early energy of a massive bull run in gold (insurance against the declining purchasing power of the $) gold miners, silver ,silver miners, platinum, copper, zinc, nickel ,uranium and natural gas. Time to buckle up.
Re: What happened to the recesssion?
Both McDonald and Hay are very biased to commodities investments as am I. The issue is at the flash point of a market drop all investable assets take a hit with many of the best sold off to cover the losses on the worst. The message to me is that there may come a better entry point in the not too distant future. To me there is not a lot of downside holding a bit more cash yielding 4% +/- while the play develops. I don’t think there is a lot of downside risk on that strategy.