EIA Natural Gas Storage Report - May 15

[dan_s]

Working gas in storage was 2,255 Bcf as of Friday, May 9, 2025, according to EIA estimates.
This represents a net increase of 110 Bcf from the previous week.
Stocks were 375 Bcf less than last year at this time and 57 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,198 Bcf.
At 2,255 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

By Q1 2026 demand for U.S. natural gas by the LNG exporters and for power generation is expected to be 5 to 6 Bcf per day higher than it was in Q1 2025. This means that U.S. utilities will need to have 450 Bcf more gas in storage by mid-November 2025 than they did the previous year to make it through a cold winter. Refilling storage is not an option.

Comparing the storage level to the previous 5-year average is misleading.

We will be publishing an updated profile this afternoon on Coterra Energy (CTRA), which is now one of my Top Picks to take advantage of rising natural gas prices. All ten analysts that have updated their price target on CTRA since Coterra released Q1 2025 financial results, rate CTRA a "BUY" of "STRONG BUY" at today's share price.

"With less natural gas in inventory, we now expect higher natural gas prices during the forecast period than we did in our January STEO, the first STEO to include forecasts for 2026. We expect the Henry Hub spot price to average $4.10/MMBtu in 2025 and $4.80/MMBtu in 2026, between $0.80–$1.00/MMBtu higher than we had forecast in January." - EIA in their 5-6-2025 Short-Term Energy Outlook Report

[knusser58]

Hi,
today NG down significantly, the whole futures curve.
Any specific news?
Regards,
Klaus

[dan_s]

The price you see is the JUN25 NYMEX contract. As we move closer to the expiration date, the Paper Traders must cover their longs since they cannot take physical delivery. Looks like the price will bounce back today, but there will continue to be volatility in the natural gas futures market.

I do expect storage builds to get smaller in June and much smaller in July. If there is a Bidding War for physical supply, it will happen in mid-Q3.

Q2 forecasts are based on HH natural gas averaging $3.25/MMBtu for the quarter. So far, it has average about $3.40

[knusser58]

Hi Dan,
thankyou.
Today large rebound.
Regards,
Klaus