EIA forecast is that HH Ngas will average $4.20 in Q3

[dan_s]

Market update from EBW Analytics Group > https://ebwanalytics.com/

July Contract Crosses 20-Day Average While Henry Hub Withers

The July natural gas NYMEX futures contract tested $3.817 intraday Friday before closing at a three-week high of $3.784—crossing above the 20-day moving average. While technicals point higher, Henry Hub spot crumbling to $2.68 continues to weigh on upside.

Over the weekend, cooling demand rose 7 CDDs with modest warming in the Southeast.

Plaquemines and Corpus Christi LNG ticked higher. Cameron LNG maintenance may
conclude at any point, and two trains at Sabine Pass and a midscale unit at Corpus
Christi are likely online by the end of June—all bullish catalysts.

However, production readings rose, and triple-digit injections and weak cash market
realizations are a warning for bulls. In 30 days, LNG and power burn demand will be up,
injections lower, and cash stronger. Momentum is bullish and natural gas appears primed
for a breakout higher. Still, a $1.11/MMBtu NYMEX front-month premium to Henry Hub
spot prices is a warning if anticipated bullish catalysts disappoint.
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My Forecast: The AUG25 NYMEX contract will go over $4.00 in July. The JAN26 NYMEX contract will be the front month at the end of November. Today it is trading at $4.99. U.S. natural gas price will move over $5.00 in December. Where it goes from there depends on the winter weather. EIA's 2026 forecast is $4.80/MMBtu average for the year.