EIA Weekly Petroleum Data - August 27

[dan_s]

Read my 2 previous posts that show that the Global Oil Market might be much tighter than the current Paradigm that it is over-supplied.

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending August 22, 2025

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.9 million barrels per day during the week ending August 22, 2025, which was 328 thousand barrels per day less than the previous week’s average.
Refineries operated at 94.6% of their operable capacity last week. < Starting mid-September refineries start doing maintenance projects, so this percentage will decline below 90% in October and crude oil inventories will build.
Gasoline production increased last week, averaging 10 million barrels per day.
Distillate fuel production decreased by 112 thousand barrels per day last week, averaging 5.2 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.2 million barrels per day last week, decreased by 263 thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.4 million barrels per day, 0.4% less than the same four-week period last year.
Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 767 thousand barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 141 thousand barrels per day.

Inventories: Focus on the deficits to the five-year average for the Big Three

> U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 2.4 million barrels from the previous week. At 418.3 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 6% below the five year average for this time of year.
> Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 1.2 million barrels from last week and are at the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories increased and blending components inventories decreased last week. < The ultra-light oil from the shales is very good for making gasoline. For diesel and heating oil refineries need Black Oil.
> Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 1.8 million barrels last week and are about 15% below the five year average for this time of year.
> Propane/propylene inventories increased by 1.7 million barrels from last week and are 13% above the five year average for this time of year.
>> Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 4.4 million barrels last week.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 21.2 million barrels a day, up by 2.5% from the same period last year.
Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 9 million barrels a day, down by 1.1% from the same period last year.
Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.9 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, up by 7.7% from the same period last year.
Jet fuel product supplied was up 1.7% compared with the same four week period last year.
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Bottomline: The U.S. economy runs on oil-based products. Today the U.S. market for oil-based products is "adequately" supply, but there is nothing close to a "glut". If not for the FEAR of a global recession, which is still being supported by the FEAR of the Trump Tariff War, WTI would be over $70/bbl. If WTI does dip below $60/bbl it will be in October. After October, if we do not see a significant increase in U.S. and OECD Big Three inventories (crude oil, gasoline and distillates), a normal reaction should be rising oil prices. We live in "The World of Uncertainty" with a lot of political noise.

[mrbill]

I keep hearing about the "5 year average". Was the coming "A.I. new construction Tsunami" even a concept 1 year ago. New demands for fuel is coming. Just saw Trump on Fox Business showing a sketch of a North Louisiana newbuild A.I. plant the size of Manhattan New York Island. Reminds me of a Cat 5 hurricane over the horizon heading this way.