EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report - Nov 6

[dan_s]

Working gas in storage was 3,915 Bcf as of Friday, October 31, 2025, according to EIA estimates.
This represents a net increase of 33 Bcf from the previous week.
Stocks were 6 Bcf less than last year at this time and 162 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,753 Bcf.
At 3,915 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

< The build for the last week of the refill season should be around 40 Bcf, So the winter heating season will begin with ~3,955 Bcf in storage, ~170 Bcf above the 5-year average.

Why is the natural gas price $4.30/MMBtu this morning, 61% higher than the gas price was a year ago?
> Because comparing the amount of natural gas in storage to the 5-year average is very misleading. Demand for U.S. natural gas is MUCH HIGHER than it was 5 years ago. Last year at this time storage was also way above the 5-year average and with a rather mild winter, storage went below the 5-year average in January 2025.
> Due primarily to a big increase in LNG exports YOY (see page 1 of our profile on EQT) and this weekend's cold snap, the surplus to the 5-year average should be gone by mid-January.
> If EIA were to measure gas in storage by Days of Demand, you would see that the U.S. gas market is very tight and that storage could be at a 5-year low by the end of March 2026.

How high could natural gas prices go in Q1 2026?
> JAN26 NYMEX futures contract for HH Ngas is trading at $4.52/MMBtu this morning. It will be the price we see in the news at the end of November.
> What the average price will be in Q1 2026 depends on the weather. If we just have normal winter weather for the next seven weeks, we could see $5.00/MMBtu in Q1.
> If Miss La Nina causes several more big dips in the northern jet stream over the eastern half of the U.S. (like the one we will see on Sunday & Monday) during December to March, then we could see $6.00/MMBtu.
> The natural gas prices went over $9.00/MMBtu in 2022.

Draws from storage normally continue through March but after the first week of March 2025 the weather in the Eastern U.S. turned very mild and gas in storage started to rebuild starting the week that ended March 14, 2025. NGas prices went from $4.50 the beginning of March to $3.00 by the end of April.
> Weather is ALWAYS the primary driver of natural gas demand, BUT much higher LNG exports should keep gas prices from plunging in Q2 this year.
> Ramping up in 2H 2026 will be demand for power generation. A lot of AI Data Centers are building their own gas-fired power plants.
> NGas prices normally ramp up in June because power generation demand always increases in June - August.

Bottomline: With just a normal winter in the Eastern U.S. HH natural gas prices should average more than $4.00/MMBtu in 2026. If we do have a colder than normal winter, it will be very difficult if not impossible for storage to rebuild before the 2026/2027 winter.

NOW is the time to add more natural gas to your portfolio.
> My Top Picks: AR, EQT, RRC, SDE.TO, PNE.TO, PEY.TO, BSM, KRP
> Gas prices will remain low in the Permian Basin.
> Others to consider because more than 50% of their production is natural gas & NGLs: CTRA, CRGY, DVN, EOG, MGY, OVV, IPO.TO
> Big cold waves in the Midwest also increase demand for propane.
> NGas prices are also going up in Western Canada. The AECO Strip prices for 2026 are now over $3.00Cdn. LNG Canada is expected to ramp up to 2 Bcf per day of exports in Q1 2026, which is more than 10% of Canada's total gas production.
> VERY IMPORTANT: Look at each company's hedges, which I show at the bottom of each company forecast.

[dan_s]

NYMEX Strip for HH gas.
JUL26 through FEB27 are currently all over $4.00/MMBtu with JAN at $4.99/MMBtu

Trading Economics
US natural gas futures rose to above $4.30 per MMBtu, hovering at the highest since March, driven by near-record LNG export demand.
> Flows to the eight major LNG plants averaged 17.4 bcfd so far in November, up from October’s record, and are expected to keep rising as Europe seeks alternatives to Russian gas and Asian buyers negotiate long-term US supply commitments.
> Still, warmer-than-normal weather through November 21 is set to curb heating demand. < They must not be watching the Weather Channel.
> Output remains strong: Lower-48 production has risen to 108.7 bcfd, surpassing October levels and nearing yearly highs, enabling above-average storage injections.
> Inventories now sit about 4% above seasonal norms. Even so, the latest EIA data showed a smaller-than-usual storage build.

[mrbill]

Super great post, Dan. I love blue comments and red ones too, and so many. "5 year average" seems obsolete to use as a guide. A.I. and data centers the size of New York City coupled with massive and growing LNG export makes me wonder how much the weather will direct natgas usage and levels in the immediate future. Keep up the great work.