Iran is currently exporting about 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd).
Outside of Iran, there is only 1.73 million bpd of spare capacity remaining, per IEA estimate.
What happens in Iran is much more important than what happens in Venezuela.
"All-in, Iran produces ~5 million boe/d total liquids, which is extremely meaningful for the market. Any prolonged disruptions to the existing regime imply that supply security will be at risk, and the geopolitical premium in the oil market will spike." - HFI Research 1-9-2026
Why is Iran so important?
Why is Iran so important?
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Why is Iran so important?
At the time of this post WTI oil (FEB26) was up $0.63 to $58.39/bbl
Trading Economics:
WTI crude oil futures rose to around $58.3 per barrel on Friday, building on a more than 3% gain in the previous session, the largest since last October, as markets continued to weigh geopolitical risks.
> President Donald Trump warned Iran of a “hard” response if its government caused protesters to lose their lives, reigniting concerns over potential supply disruptions from one of OPEC’s largest producers.
> Traders also digested news that Senator Lindsey Graham said Trump approved a bipartisan Russia sanctions bill targeting countries buying discounted Russian oil that funds Moscow’s war.
> Meanwhile, US actions in Venezuela remained in focus after Washington seized two oil tankers linked to the country in the Atlantic, including one flying a Russian flag, highlighting Trump’s intensified efforts to control energy flows in the Americas and pressure Venezuela’s socialist government.
> For the week, oil is on track for a third consecutive advance.
Without the non-stop "noise" telling us that there is an oil supply glut, this much geopolitical risk would send oil prices much higher. < FACT: U.S. crude oil inventories are BELOW NORMAL for this time of year.
Trading Economics:
WTI crude oil futures rose to around $58.3 per barrel on Friday, building on a more than 3% gain in the previous session, the largest since last October, as markets continued to weigh geopolitical risks.
> President Donald Trump warned Iran of a “hard” response if its government caused protesters to lose their lives, reigniting concerns over potential supply disruptions from one of OPEC’s largest producers.
> Traders also digested news that Senator Lindsey Graham said Trump approved a bipartisan Russia sanctions bill targeting countries buying discounted Russian oil that funds Moscow’s war.
> Meanwhile, US actions in Venezuela remained in focus after Washington seized two oil tankers linked to the country in the Atlantic, including one flying a Russian flag, highlighting Trump’s intensified efforts to control energy flows in the Americas and pressure Venezuela’s socialist government.
> For the week, oil is on track for a third consecutive advance.
Without the non-stop "noise" telling us that there is an oil supply glut, this much geopolitical risk would send oil prices much higher. < FACT: U.S. crude oil inventories are BELOW NORMAL for this time of year.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Why is Iran so important?
These notes are from one of our members that has contacts in Iran:
Mullahs have cut cell phone service so people can’t hear comments from son of ex-Shah telling them to revolt now and kick out kamaini.
Israeli operatives are walking around in protest crowds and handing out SpaceX/Starlink phones so they can talk and stay in touch.
If Iran starts mass killing of people, all US and Israel have to do is bomb the command centers in all 31 districts and they are left blind.
Watch this: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/news/mass-protests-spread-in-iran-amid-internet-blackout/vi-AA1TTjfA
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MY TAKEs:
1. The Supreme Leader's days are numbered.
2. Peace in the Middle East is impossible unless there is Regime Change in Iran.
3. A high percentage of the Iran population hates the current government.
4. It will only take a small amount of support for the protestors from the U.S. & Israel to end the Mullah's control.
Mullahs have cut cell phone service so people can’t hear comments from son of ex-Shah telling them to revolt now and kick out kamaini.
Israeli operatives are walking around in protest crowds and handing out SpaceX/Starlink phones so they can talk and stay in touch.
If Iran starts mass killing of people, all US and Israel have to do is bomb the command centers in all 31 districts and they are left blind.
Watch this: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/news/mass-protests-spread-in-iran-amid-internet-blackout/vi-AA1TTjfA
---------------------
MY TAKEs:
1. The Supreme Leader's days are numbered.
2. Peace in the Middle East is impossible unless there is Regime Change in Iran.
3. A high percentage of the Iran population hates the current government.
4. It will only take a small amount of support for the protestors from the U.S. & Israel to end the Mullah's control.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group