Crescent Energy (CRGY) Price Target - Jan 9

[dan_s]

TipRanks on 1-9-2026: Based on 2 Best Performing Wall Street analysts offering 12 month price targets for Crescent Energy Company Class A in the last 3 months. The average price target is $13.50 with a high forecast of $14.00 and a low forecast of $13.00. The average price target represents a 66.26% change from the last price of $8.12.

On December 26 Siebert Williams Shank & Co analyst Gabriele Sorbara (Rated 5 Stars by TipRanks) maintained a Buy rating on Crescent Energy Company Class A and set a price target of $14.00. A total of 4 price targets were submitted to TipRanks in December that are $12, $13, $13, $14.
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Today (1/9/2026): Crescent Energy Company Class A (CRGY) has received a new Hold rating, initiated by BMO Capital analyst, Phillip Jungwirth (3.5 Star rating by TipRanks)

Phillip Jungwirth has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors related to Crescent Energy’s evolving asset base and financial profile. He notes that the company has significantly reshaped its portfolio by concentrating in the Eagle Ford, Permian, and Uinta, which has lifted margins and improved cost efficiency, and he views the resulting asset mix as more competitive in terms of returns and inventory. However, he characterizes 2026 as a transition year, with production from the Vital acquisition moving toward a steady-state level and the pace of debt reduction constrained by weaker expected oil prices.
At the same time, Jungwirth points out that Crescent’s shares appear inexpensive versus peers on several valuation measures and offer strong free cash flow yields, though part of that is driven by hedge benefits, below-maintenance capital spending, and a comparatively higher leverage position. While leverage remains within management’s target and hedging provides some cash flow protection, he highlights ongoing macro uncertainty and a base case of roughly $60 per barrel oil, which he believes will delay any material re-rating of the stock. Taken together, these positives and risks lead him to see medium-term upside potential but not enough near-term catalysts to justify a more aggressive stance, supporting his Market Perform (Hold) recommendation and $10 price target.
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My current valuation of CRGY is $23, based on just 3.25 X my forecast of annualized operating cash flow per share for 2025 to 2027. Even if the company's realized oil price is $50/bbl for 2026 and 2027, Crescent Energy can remain free cash flow positive.

[uberCOAT]

Just my thoughts — I don’t think the $23 estimate is unreasonable, but it does feel aggressive at this stage. The market appears to be saying it won’t underwrite that kind of multiple until Crescent demonstrates it can successfully delever post-Vital, sustain production without stretching capital, and consistently generate free cash flow across a full commodity cycle. To me, this looks like a multi-year re-rating story rather than something that plays out quickly. We’ll see how it develops.

[dan_s]

I agree that it will take time for this to play out. A near-term price target of $13.00 (TipRanks' consensus) is reasonable.

The Wall Street Gang is waiting for the December 31, 2025 reserve report reviewed and approved by Ryder Scott Company, L.P. (a highly respected petroleum engineering firm), audited financial statements, and detailed guidance for 2026. We should have all of this by mid-February.

Analysts also need to know what is being sold, at what price and what the proceeds will be used for. The balance sheet should be in good shape after all of the sales close.

Investors want confirmation the dividends are sustainable. Management has indicated that they will be and based on my forecast they should be.

Very important to me is the quality of "Running Room" post-merger and post sales. Harry and I are basing our forecasts on Q1 2026 production of ~390,000 Boepd with a mix of approximately 42% crude oil, 36.5% natural gas and 21.5% NGLs. With a $1.2 billion capex program in 2026, I expect production to increase slightly to a Q4 2026 rate of 395,000 Boepd. Asset sales will have some impact on 2026 production.

My valuation is based on a low multiple (3.25X) of annualized operating cash flow. If Q4 results and guidance confirm my model assumptions, and oil & gas prices stabilize, there is upside for CRGY. My operating CFPS forecasts for the next three quarters are very close to the current TipRanks' consensus CFPS forecasts.

I just checked and my forecasts for Q4 2025 and Q1 & Q2 2026 are below the current consensus forecasts from TipRanks, which are just the average of 8 analysts' forecasts submitted to TipRanks in the last 3 months. Those 8 forecast models should include the impact of the merger with Vital that closed on December 15th. After Q2 2026, my forecasts are based on higher oil & gas prices than what most of the analysts are using.

A high percentage of Crescent Energy's oil & gas is hedged at good prices, so commodity price risk is low on this one.