Oil Price Forecast - Jan 12

[dan_s]

"We are quite optimistic on energy prices in 2026, and more so than the consensus. First, we see inventories on land being drawn down starting in Q2/26. Second, we see OPEC having little spare production capacity (as seen from the November OPEC Monthly) and third, we don’t see Russia being able to add much more production if there is a peace deal with Ukraine. Overall we expect WTI to average US$70/b in 2026 with over US$80/b in Q4/26. Our trajectory sees Q1 prices ranging from US$52 – US$66/b, Q2 from US$62 – US$72/b, Q3 from US$68 – US$78/b and Q4 ranging from US$74 – US$84/b. If this develops as forcast, energy stocks should have outsized returns in 2026." Josef Schachter 1-7-2026

Watch this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=822a0dD7iSg
Josef explains why a significant increase in oil production in Venezuela is 18-24 months away and why the global oil market will tighten up this summer.

Trading Economics:
WTI crude futures holding at $59 per barrel on Monday, giving back earlier gains as the potential resumption of Venezuelan oil exports outweighed concerns over supply disruptions from escalating protests in Iran.
> The unrest in Iran has reportedly claimed hundreds of lives, with US President Donald Trump reportedly weighing options to intervene, raising fears that it may impact oil shipments at the Strait of Hormuz.
> Iran exports nearly 2 million barrels per day and ranks as OPEC’s fourth largest producer, making any escalation a material risk to global supply.
> Meanwhile, Venezuela is expected to resume oil exports soon, with Trump last week indicating that Caracas could release up to 50 million barrels of previously sanctioned crude to the US. US oil companies are now arranging tanker shipments, with the first vessel potentially loaded by next week.

[dan_s]

Why the risk is too high for even the Majors to invest in Venezuela: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6yZeSl5sogI

Peak of non-OPEC oil production expected to occur in 2026 AND OPEC+ only has 1.5 million bpd of spare capacity.