Today's webinar will focus on the natural gas market in Western Canada.
Joining me on today's webinar will be Phil Hodge, President & CEO of Pine Cliff Energy (PNE.TO and PIFYF), one of the companies in our Small-Cap Growth Portfolio. Pine Cliff's 2025 production was approximately 21,000 Boepd with a mix of 80.2% natural gas, 13.5% NGLs and 6.3% crude oil.
To attend the live webinar, register here: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_-avm5fijQ-mb9U3HwETxaw#/registration
If the link does not work for you, just send an email to Sabrina at energyprospectus@gmail.com
I expect U.S. natural gas prices (at the Henry Hub) to average $4.00/MMBtu. < The DEC26 futures contract is trading at $4.82/MMBtu this morning.
Trading Economics:
This morning US natural gas futures (MAR26) rose more than 3% to $3.85 per MMBtu after two volatile sessions, as mixed weather forecasts kept demand expectations uncertain.
> Commodity Weather Group showed slightly colder conditions in the eastern US for the first week of February, followed by somewhat warmer weather in the northern states the following week. < During his most recent Saturday Summary, Joe Bastardi at www.weatherbell.com said that he expects the eastern half the U.S. to remain colder than normal through February.
> Gas inventories are estimated to have fallen by more than 230 billion cubic feet last week, above the five-year average withdrawal of 208 bcf, though stocks are still seen about 5.4% above the five-year average ahead of the EIA storage report due Thursday. < Per Celsius Energy, draws from storage are expected to be 362 Bcf for the week ending January 30 and U.S. natural gas in storage should be more than 200 Bcf below the 5-year average by mid-February.
> US gas production rebounded to about 102.1 bcfd on Wednesday as output returned following storm-related disruptions that had taken more than 15% of supply offline over the weekend.
> The market remains sensitive after a historic weather-driven rally that caught traders off guard, keeping price action volatile.
Natural Gas Prices - Jan 29
Natural Gas Prices - Jan 29
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Natural Gas Prices - Jan 29
Today's IEA natural gas storage report:
Working gas in storage was 2,823 Bcf as of Friday, January 23, 2026, according to EIA estimates.
This represents a net decrease of 242 Bcf from the previous week.
Stocks were 206 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 143 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,680 Bcf.
At 2,823 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.
Very bullish:
1. The draw was higher than expected by 12 Bcf.
2. The draw for the week ending January 30 is currently expected to be 362 Bcf, 174 Bcf larger than the 5-year average. So, at the end of January gas in U.S. storage will be lower than the 5-year average.
3. Draws for the first 2 weeks of February are now forecast to be combined 189 Bcf larger than the 5-year average.
4. Exxon's Golden Pass export facility with an export capacity of 2.2 Bcf per day comes online in March.
5. Natural gas storage in Europe is more than 500 Bcf below average for this time of year, thanks to a colder than normal winter in Europe.
6. Natural gas prices are $13.60/MMBtu in Europe and $11.35/MMBtu in Japan/Korea.
7. Structural changes in the North American natural gas market, primarily LNG exports and a lot more natural gas fired power plants, are expected to increase demand for NA gas by 45 Bcfpd over the next ten years. If so, a lot of new gas wells and infrastructure will be required, which will also increase demand for oil-based fuels.
Question: Why aren't the Climate Change Wackos celebrating the end of Global Warming?
PS: "The US LNG export fleet continued its road to recovery, with flows rising >7 Bcf/d since seeing a Monday low print near 12 Bcf/d. We now see feed gas of >19 Bcf/d and new record flows are anticipated in Feb-Mar 2026 with CCL Stage 3 Train 5 and potentially GP Train 1 entering the mix." - @Pipeline Flows
Working gas in storage was 2,823 Bcf as of Friday, January 23, 2026, according to EIA estimates.
This represents a net decrease of 242 Bcf from the previous week.
Stocks were 206 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 143 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,680 Bcf.
At 2,823 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.
Very bullish:
1. The draw was higher than expected by 12 Bcf.
2. The draw for the week ending January 30 is currently expected to be 362 Bcf, 174 Bcf larger than the 5-year average. So, at the end of January gas in U.S. storage will be lower than the 5-year average.
3. Draws for the first 2 weeks of February are now forecast to be combined 189 Bcf larger than the 5-year average.
4. Exxon's Golden Pass export facility with an export capacity of 2.2 Bcf per day comes online in March.
5. Natural gas storage in Europe is more than 500 Bcf below average for this time of year, thanks to a colder than normal winter in Europe.
6. Natural gas prices are $13.60/MMBtu in Europe and $11.35/MMBtu in Japan/Korea.
7. Structural changes in the North American natural gas market, primarily LNG exports and a lot more natural gas fired power plants, are expected to increase demand for NA gas by 45 Bcfpd over the next ten years. If so, a lot of new gas wells and infrastructure will be required, which will also increase demand for oil-based fuels.
Question: Why aren't the Climate Change Wackos celebrating the end of Global Warming?
PS: "The US LNG export fleet continued its road to recovery, with flows rising >7 Bcf/d since seeing a Monday low print near 12 Bcf/d. We now see feed gas of >19 Bcf/d and new record flows are anticipated in Feb-Mar 2026 with CCL Stage 3 Train 5 and potentially GP Train 1 entering the mix." - @Pipeline Flows
Last edited by dan_s on Thu Jan 29, 2026 2:38 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Natural Gas Prices - Jan 29
On today's webinar we spent more than half the time discussing the North American natural gas market, which all of the panelists in agreement that it has turned very bullish. Hang on to your "gassers".
Plus, Pine Cliff will soon be completing to sales a very important new horizontal well. If production is at or above the area type curve, Pine Cliff has a lot of high-quality running room in the area. The Deep Basin is home to some of the best wells in Western Canada.
Plus, Pine Cliff will soon be completing to sales a very important new horizontal well. If production is at or above the area type curve, Pine Cliff has a lot of high-quality running room in the area. The Deep Basin is home to some of the best wells in Western Canada.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Natural Gas Prices - Jan 29
The latest European ENSO forecast shows that the La Nina is ending quicker than expected. By summer it will be replace by an El Nino. I expect this forecast trend to reduce the summer build, but also reduce next winter's draw. I'll be watching it closely, but my best guess is peak Nat Gas prices in August, followed by lower prices despite the AI and LNG demand growth.
https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/la-nina-dissolve-el-nino-forecast-weather-shift-2026-united-states-canada-europe-fa/
https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/la-nina-dissolve-el-nino-forecast-weather-shift-2026-united-states-canada-europe-fa/
Re: Natural Gas Prices - Jan 29
Just remember that weather forecasts beyond a few weeks are just a Wild Ass Guess ("WAG").
Go to https://www.celsiusenergy.net/ see how quickly U.S. gas in storage will go from a surplus to a large deficit to the 5-year average in just a few weeks.
Next Thursday, EIA will report a very large draw from storage for the week ending January 30 (over 360 Bcf) that will wipe out the surplus. Then the next three weekly draws should push the storage deficit to ~300 Bcf.
As we discussed during the webinar, using the weekly storage reports to estimate how tight the U.S. natural gas market is very misleading because demand is so much higher than it was five years ago. Plus, LNG exports and electricity demand growth make refilling storage difficult if not impossible before the 2026/2027 winter begins. If draws from storage continue through March, U.S. natural gas prices should move quite a bit higher.
I agree that we could see a repeat of the Bidding War for natural gas supply in August that we saw in August 2022 when the gas price went over $9.00/MMBtu.
Go to https://www.celsiusenergy.net/ see how quickly U.S. gas in storage will go from a surplus to a large deficit to the 5-year average in just a few weeks.
Next Thursday, EIA will report a very large draw from storage for the week ending January 30 (over 360 Bcf) that will wipe out the surplus. Then the next three weekly draws should push the storage deficit to ~300 Bcf.
As we discussed during the webinar, using the weekly storage reports to estimate how tight the U.S. natural gas market is very misleading because demand is so much higher than it was five years ago. Plus, LNG exports and electricity demand growth make refilling storage difficult if not impossible before the 2026/2027 winter begins. If draws from storage continue through March, U.S. natural gas prices should move quite a bit higher.
I agree that we could see a repeat of the Bidding War for natural gas supply in August that we saw in August 2022 when the gas price went over $9.00/MMBtu.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group