KOG

[dan_s]

Kodiak's 4th quarter production came is slightly below my forecast but net income was higher due to much lower income tax expense than I had expected in the quarter. The company produced very strong production growth this year and I expect production to double again in 2013.

I will spend some time on KOG tomorrow and update the forecast model. I want to listen to their conference call first.

I have a meeting up in The Woodlands tomorrow so it will be late afternoon or Saturday before I get to this one.

I have updated profiles on OAS, XEC and GTE waiting for my review. The interns are really keeping me busy. BTW GTE is looking very good these days with a couple of big discovery wells.

At next week's luncheons in Houston on Tuesday and Dallas on Wednesday, I will open with comments on the Sweet 16. I also want to set up a live on-line presentation mid-March. I just need one of "Techies" to figure it out.

[dan_s]

Kodiak Oil & Gas (KOG): An updated Net Income & Cash Flow Forecast model has been posted under the Sweet 16 Tab.

I will take another hard look at KOG when we update the profile next week.

KOG continues to have very strong production growth. They had to flare a over 50% of their natural gas in Q4. Wells should be completed in bunches this year and they have a good shot at doubling production to 30,000 boepd in 2013. You can find my Fair Value Estimate at the bottom of the forecast spreadsheet.

[setliff]

mkt dissappointed again--kog trading down 22c as of this writing. they need to promise less and deliver more instead of vice versa. chart is really crappy.

[bearcatbob]

mkt dissappointed again--kog trading down 22c as of this writing. they need to promise less and deliver more instead of vice versa. chart is really crappy.

KOG is an option traders dream as long as it trades near $9. Sell the puts - get exercised - sell the calls get called and sell the puts - over and over and over.

[dan_s]

I agree that KOG's management has a long history of over-promising and under-delivering but you must admit the company's production and reserve growth is very impressive. My forecast for 2013 is based on the low end of their guidance. For some reason I could not get my computer to connect to their conference call, then I had to leave for a meeting. Just got back to the desk.

I am updating my RRC forecast right now and I will read the transcript of KOG's call tomorrow morning.

I agree that trading options on KOG can be very profitable. Selling Puts on the dips works best for me.