Natural Gas Supply / Demand

[dan_s]

I went to the EIA website to see how this year is shaping up against the previous five years. What I found reveals that what's going on is much more than a weather related story. Take a look at 2008. The first quarter of 2008 was a cold winter and the economy was booming during the 1st quarter. If you add up all five years 2008-2012 (14x7x5 = 490 days) the average draws were 14.9 bcf per day during the first 14 weeks of the year. This year we have drawn over 20 bcf per day from storage (1,965 / (14X7)).

Draws for the first 14 weeks of the year
2008 - 1760
2009 - 1203
2010 - 1607
2011 - 1653
2012 - 1069
2013 - 1965
This year’s draws are the largest during the last six year. This is much more than just a weather story.

I also believe U.S. demand for gas will be over a TCF higher in 2013 than in 2012, we may top 27 TCF in total demand. We are staring at a much tighter gas market this year. In fact, I now believe the market will be AT LEAST 5 bcf per day tighter.

[ghrcap]

"HOW TO PLAY OUR BULL CASE FOR GAS" (Canaccord Genuity)
https://research.canaccordgenuity.com/_ ... ubid=90141

[dan_s]

Very good report. You should all read it.