Endeavour Intl (END) is finally ready to blossom

[ghrcap]

Big sequential quarterly production increases attract attention. Endeavour, a heretofore serial under-performer, just might be the one to show a ~23% increase between Q3 and Q4. They will finally bring their Rochelle field in central North Sea (UK) onto production by the end of September, according to CEO Bill Transier last week at the Imperial Capital Conference. END is at a turning point and will present to the Johnson Rice Conference October 2 to pop the cork on the champagne bottle.
http://wsw.com/webcast/imperial13/regis ... ial13/END/

They have a good group of analysts to spread the word on Rochelle when it comes to pass and assess the impact.
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zht ... l-analysts

[dan_s]

I am trying to get END to host a luncheon for us after their Q3 results come out. I am from Missouri, so I want to actually see the production growth before I recommend it, but I am hearing good reports. The share price is certainly up off the April low.

[ghrcap]

The short interest here is gigantic. Only 500K shares have been covered since March. If they can get Rochelle established in production and appear they can meet payroll, the stock should get some lift. This is an ATPG type of battle through December 31 at the very least and not for the faint of heart.
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/end/short-interest

[dan_s]

I agree that END has a much higher level of risk than our portfolio companies. However, it also has double written all over it if things work out.

Please don't remind me of ATPG. I did loose my ass on that one.

[ghrcap]

Yes, ATPG was a nightmare. A friend of mine talked with Al Reese recently (the former CFO) and learned that the ATPG bondholders will only get a few pennies on their dollars. Ouch!

[dan_s]

About six months before they went BR (when the stock was still around $20/share), I tried to get Al to consider issuing more equity to shore up the balance sheet. Debt can be great when everything works out, but it can also be a killer when something goes wrong. Timing of the BP blowout could not have been worse for ATPG.

The lesson that I learned was to avoid "concentration risk".

[ghrcap]

END spoke at Johnson Rice after the close today, and while we did not get the production initiation from Rochelle that I thought we would (Nexen is still pressuring up the Scott Platform with first production for END "any day"), Bill Transier fleshed out more of the opportunity for 4Q13 and 2014 and discussed the strategic review which will be complete by year end. The webcast replay and slides which you need to advance while listening are here:
http://wsw.com/webcast/jr14/END/
http://www.endeavourcorp.com/_presentat ... erence.pdf

[dan_s]

Thanks. We will publish a profile on END after they release Q3 results.