I took a hard look at Gastar today. I am raising my Fair Value Estimate to $5.60/share.
I believe they will close the sale to Cubic Energy next week, but even if they don't my valuation won't go down.
If GST reaches my exit rate of 11,000 boepd AND they report good drilling results in their Oklahoma Hunton play, this stock could take off. Take a hard look at my valuation formula on the bottom of my forecast spreadsheet (which you can download from the Watch List). It is very conservative for a company with this much running room. They have hundreds of development drilling locations in both their liquids rich Marcellus acreage and in Oklahoma.
1. I am using only 6X CFPS (very low multiple for a company with lots of running room)
2. I am using CFPS for 2012-2014. At year-end that will roll forward one year, taking my Fair Value Estimate to over $7/share.
3. If Ngas prices push over $4.00/mcf next year, which I think is very possible, this one's Fair Value could top $10/share.
Take a look at how First Call now has GST's EPS ramping higher quarter-after-quarter. That should draw a lot of attention from Wall Street + their Oklahoma project has lots of running room.
Gastar's pfd stock (GST-PA) is now ROCK SOLID. It pays dividends monthly and the annual yield is ~9%.
GST is now up more than 200% YTD, making it one of my Top Picks of the year.
Gastar (GST and GST-PA)
Gastar (GST and GST-PA)
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Gastar (GST and GST-PA)
HOUSTON, Sept. 25, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- Gastar Exploration Ltd. (NYSE MKT: GST) announced today that J. Russell Porter, President and Chief Executive Officer, will present at the Johnson Rice & Company 2013 Energy Conference to be held in New Orleans, LA on September 30 — October 2.
Gastar's presentation will be webcast live on Monday, September 30 at 2:05 p.m. Central Time (3:05 p.m. Eastern Time). To listen to the audio webcast and view accompanying presentation materials, visit the Investor Relations page of Gastar's web site at www.gastar.com and select Events/Presentations. A replay will be archived on the web site shortly after the presentation concludes.
About Gastar Exploration
Gastar Exploration Ltd. is an independent energy company engaged in the exploration, development and production of oil, natural gas, condensate and natural gas liquids in the United States. Gastar's principal business activities include the identification, acquisition, and subsequent exploration and development of oil and natural gas properties with an emphasis on unconventional reserves such as shale resource plays. Gastar is currently pursuing the development of liquids-rich natural gas in the Marcellus Shale in West Virginia and is also in the early stages of exploring and developing the Hunton Limestone horizontal oil play in Oklahoma. Gastar also holds producing natural gas acreage in the deep Bossier play in the Hilltop area of East Texas, but has entered into a definitive agreement to sell its East Texas assets. For more information, visit Gastar's website at www.gastar.com.
Gastar's presentation will be webcast live on Monday, September 30 at 2:05 p.m. Central Time (3:05 p.m. Eastern Time). To listen to the audio webcast and view accompanying presentation materials, visit the Investor Relations page of Gastar's web site at www.gastar.com and select Events/Presentations. A replay will be archived on the web site shortly after the presentation concludes.
About Gastar Exploration
Gastar Exploration Ltd. is an independent energy company engaged in the exploration, development and production of oil, natural gas, condensate and natural gas liquids in the United States. Gastar's principal business activities include the identification, acquisition, and subsequent exploration and development of oil and natural gas properties with an emphasis on unconventional reserves such as shale resource plays. Gastar is currently pursuing the development of liquids-rich natural gas in the Marcellus Shale in West Virginia and is also in the early stages of exploring and developing the Hunton Limestone horizontal oil play in Oklahoma. Gastar also holds producing natural gas acreage in the deep Bossier play in the Hilltop area of East Texas, but has entered into a definitive agreement to sell its East Texas assets. For more information, visit Gastar's website at www.gastar.com.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group