Lightstream Resources
Lightstream Resources
Q3 production was slightly less than what I have in my model. Exit rate of 47,000 boepd is OK, but I was hoping for close to 50,000 boepd. Higher oil prices should offset slightly lower production. Dividends are definitely covered for now.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Lightstream Resources
I will update my forecast model on Saturday. Look for it under the Watch List Tab.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Lightstream Resources
An updated Net Income & Cash Flow Forecast model has been posted under the Watch List Tab.
Here is what caused the share price to dip:
> Production in Q3 will be down about 1,000 boepd from Q2
> More important: Oil production will be down ~2,400 bopd (more associated gas from new Cardium wells)
> Company is hoping for an exit rate of 47,000 boepd (up from 45,100 boepd in Q3)
> If they stay aggressive in the Cardium area and some midstream issues are resolved, 2014 production should be ~48,500.
I think the main reason that the share price dipped after the press release is because they indicated they may cut the dividend or issue more equity. I think as long as WTI crude oil prices stay over $90/bbl that will not happen.
From the press release. "We are currently finalizing our operational and financial plans for next year and remain committed to improving our sustainability ratio (cash outflows compared to cash inflows), lowering our debt to cash flow ratio and improving our liquidity through the many options available to us, which include, but are not limited to, modulating capital expenditures, selling assets, terming-out debt, altering our dividend program or issuing equity. Over the long-term, we continue to target a sustainability ratio of 100% and a debt to cash flow ratio of 2.0 or less. We plan to announce further details with respect to these options when we release our 2014 guidance later in the fourth quarter of 2013."
This is the first time they have suggested a cut in the dividend. Personally, I think the other options make more sense. They can monetize some of their fully developed Bakken areas.
Right now, cash flow from operations is covering their capital expenditures. Cash flow per share (before CapEx) should be around $3.60/share.
My Fair Value Estimate is $17/share. Lightstream has over 2,000 low-risk development drilling locations that are not fully valued in today's share price.
Here is what caused the share price to dip:
> Production in Q3 will be down about 1,000 boepd from Q2
> More important: Oil production will be down ~2,400 bopd (more associated gas from new Cardium wells)
> Company is hoping for an exit rate of 47,000 boepd (up from 45,100 boepd in Q3)
> If they stay aggressive in the Cardium area and some midstream issues are resolved, 2014 production should be ~48,500.
I think the main reason that the share price dipped after the press release is because they indicated they may cut the dividend or issue more equity. I think as long as WTI crude oil prices stay over $90/bbl that will not happen.
From the press release. "We are currently finalizing our operational and financial plans for next year and remain committed to improving our sustainability ratio (cash outflows compared to cash inflows), lowering our debt to cash flow ratio and improving our liquidity through the many options available to us, which include, but are not limited to, modulating capital expenditures, selling assets, terming-out debt, altering our dividend program or issuing equity. Over the long-term, we continue to target a sustainability ratio of 100% and a debt to cash flow ratio of 2.0 or less. We plan to announce further details with respect to these options when we release our 2014 guidance later in the fourth quarter of 2013."
This is the first time they have suggested a cut in the dividend. Personally, I think the other options make more sense. They can monetize some of their fully developed Bakken areas.
Right now, cash flow from operations is covering their capital expenditures. Cash flow per share (before CapEx) should be around $3.60/share.
My Fair Value Estimate is $17/share. Lightstream has over 2,000 low-risk development drilling locations that are not fully valued in today's share price.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group