Sweet 16 members approaching Fair Value

[dan_s]

As a group the Sweet 16 is now 20.3% below my combined Fair Value Estimate. CXO and XEC are now slightly over my Fair Value Estimates. This does not mean they are over-priced.

Wall Street is now in love with the Permian Basin stacked pays. CXO and XEC have a lot of running room in West Texas. Horizontal drilling is generating a lot of excitement in Midland.

I need to see Q3 results before I can justify higher valuations, but I think that is coming as I do expect very strong quarters from all of the Sweet 16.

Take a hard look at SM. I was very impressed by their Q2 results. The company is now focused on the Eagle Ford, but it is somewhat under the radar screen of the Wall Street crowd. Another block buster quarter could change that quickly. Read our profile on this one.

I will have more in next weeks "The View From Houston" newsletter.

[dan_s]

This morning, BCEI and KOG traded over my Fair Value Estimates.

This is not a reason to sell, they can still go higher. I just need more information (i.e. - 3rd quarter results) before I can justify an increase in my valuation.

[dan_s]

Oasis Petroleum Cut to Neutral From Buy by Sterne Agee.

Just because it reached their price target. OAS is going to report very strong Q3 results.