Swift Energy (SFY) bests forecast

[dan_s]

33,261 boepd beat my forecast. It is 2,730 boepd higher than their Q2 production. EPS and CFPS also beat my forecast. I am updating my forecast model now. - Dan

Swift Energy Company (SFY) announced today earnings of $8.9 million for the third quarter of 2013, or $0.20 per diluted share, an increase of 185% when compared to third quarter 2012 earnings of $3.1 million, or $0.07 per diluted share, and an increase of 32% when compared to earnings of $6.7 million, or $0.15 per diluted share in the second quarter of 2013.

Cash flow before working capital changes (a non-GAAP measure - see page 7 for reconciliation to the GAAP measure) for the third quarter of 2013 was $88.5 million, an increase of 24% when compared to $71.2 million of the same measure in the third quarter 2012.

Production increased 6% to 3.06 million barrels of oil equivalent (“MMBoe”) during the third quarter of 2013, compared to the third quarter 2012 production of 2.87 MMBoe, and up 10% compared to second quarter 2013 production of 2.78 MMBoe.

[dan_s]

An updated Net Income & Cash Flow Forecast model has been posted under the Watch List Tab.

SFY is now on-track to generate over $7.00 CFPS this year. It is ramping up to three rigs in the Eagle Ford. It is ridiculous that this small-cap is trading for less than 2X CFPS.

I have increased by Fair Value Estimate to $30.00/share, which less than 4X my CFPS forecast for 2014.

I think SFY will really take off if they sell their central Louisiana package for a decent price.

[bearcatbob]

An updated Net Income & Cash Flow Forecast model has been posted under the Watch List Tab.

SFY is now on-track to generate over $7.00 CFPS this year. It is ramping up to three rigs in the Eagle Ford. It is ridiculous that this small-cap is trading for less than 2X CFPS.

I have increased by Fair Value Estimate to $30.00/share, which less than 4X my CFPS forecast for 2014.

I think SFY will really take off if they sell their central Louisiana package for a decent price.

Dan, Cramer must be a subscriber. He issue a HUGE pump on SFY on Friday nights show. Some tech wizards could likely find a link to his presentation.

[dan_s]

This is not the first time the Cramer has recommended one of our portfolio stocks shortly after I have updated a forecast model. We do have several members in NY and one of them may be feeding info to him. That is fine with me. I own SFY.

[bearcatbob]

This is not the first time the Cramer has recommended one of our portfolio stocks shortly after I have updated a forecast model. We do have several members in NY and one of them may be feeding info to him. That is fine with me. I own SFY.

RBC has an "Outperform" rating on SFY. I sent you their 10/31 report.

Bob

[dan_s]

Thanks. RBC's price target is $20/share, which would be a nice move from today's share price. IMHO the stock is worth more. I think the sale of their central Louisiana package will draw some attention. That deal should be announced early Q1.