Gulfport Energy (GPOR)

[dan_s]

This one should be interesting. I am currently out of GPOR, but I believe it has incredible long-term upside for us. I am betting that the market will have a negative reaction to their Q3 results. If so, I will be buying.

The midstream companies are having difficulties in eastern Ohio getting right-of-ways and getting wells completed to sales. Keep in mind that these delays have nothing to do with the long-term impact of the high rate Utica wells that GPOR has already drilled and is just waiting on them to be connected to the pipelines. GPOR also has HUGE upside in their Canadian Oil Sands company. "Buy the Dip". - Dan

OKLAHOMA CITY, Nov. 1, 2013 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Gulfport Energy Corporation (GPOR) will hold a conference call on Tuesday, November 5, 2013 at 4:30 p.m. CST to discuss its third quarter 2013 financial and operational results and to provide an update on the Company's recent activities. Gulfport's third quarter 2013 earnings are scheduled to be released after the market close on Tuesday, November 5, 2013.

Interested parties may listen to the call via Gulfport's website at www.gulfportenergy.com or by calling toll-free at 877-291-1287 or 973-409-9250 for international callers. The passcode for the call is 73802562. A replay of the call will be available for two weeks at 855-859-2056 or 404-537-3406 for international callers. The replay passcode is 73802562. The webcast will be archived on the Company's website and can be accessed on the Company's "Investor Relations" page.

[bobs]

Comments on the offering and earnings????

[dan_s]

I am working on it now. Check back later. I expected a dip.

[dan_s]

Even at today's Ngas prices, this is one hell of a well:
Gulfport's first dry gas well in the Utica, the Irons 1-4H well, was recently placed on production in the Utica Shale at an average 24-hour sales rate of 30.3 MMCF of natural gas per day.
• Nine rigs are currently active in Gulfport's three core operating areas, with seven horizontal rigs in the Utica, one rig drilling at Hackberry and one rig drilling at WCBB.

James Palm, Chief Executive Officer, commented, "We are very pleased with the initial results from our Irons 1-4H well, our first well in the dry gas corridor in the Utica. With approximately 44% of our acreage located within the dry gas phase of the play, this well stands to unlock meaningful value across a large portion of our acreage. The strong economics of this well appear to be very attractive in today's commodity price environments and we look forward to drilling a number of wells in the surrounding area during 2014."

[dan_s]

By now you should all know to ignore GAAP earnings per share. GAAP EPS include so many non-cash items and BS like the mark-to-market adjustment on derivatives, all they do is confuse investors. First Call's EPS estimates ignore them and so do I in my forecast models. I do consider hedges in each company's realized commodity prices.

Cash Flow From Operations is what is most important. Gulfport's cash flow per share from operations (CFPS) for Q3 beat my forecast. Here is the CFPS by quarter that GPOR has reported this year:
Q1 = $0.38
Q2 = $0.56
Q4 = $0.87

See where this is heading?

Production for 2013 should be near 12,000 boepd. Company guidance for 2014 is 50,000 to 60,000 boepd. < This is why GPOR is in the Sweet 16 Growth Portfolio.

[dan_s]

Gulfport Energy (GPOR): An updated Net Income & Cash Flow Forecast model has been posted under the Sweet 16 Tab.

On the CC management said their exit rate at 12-31-2013 would be over 27,000 boepd, up from 12,977 boepd in Q3. 2014 production guidance is 50,000 to 60,000 boepd (~45% liquids).

Actual production in 2012 was 7,030 boepd. See why I like it so much!

My Fair Value Estimate has been adjusted to $72.50/share, compared to First Call's Target Price of $77.85/share. Note that I have include the impact of the new share offering in my per share valuation.

One of our top interns has been assigned to update the Gulfport profile, which we will publish this month.