Lightstream is one of my top picks for high yield. I think the dividend is solid but I also thing the stock is selling at a deep discount to the companies break-up value.
Read This: http://seekingalpha.com/article/1719332 ... 13-4-yield
Lightstream has too much debt, but if WTI stays over $90/bbl the company will be fine
LSTMF for High Yield and Growth
LSTMF for High Yield and Growth
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: LSTMF for High Yield and Growth
One thing to remember about E&P companies is that it is all about proven reserve growth + the potential for more growth in the future. Lightstream has over 2,000 low-risk light oil drilling locations in inventory. They hold over a million acres of undeveloped leasehold. It is worth a lot!
It is OK for them to be outspending their cash flows as long as proven reserves are growing faster. Take a look at CLR and you will see that they have been outspending their cash flows since inception and today the company has a market value over $20 Billion. Most of the Sweet 16 are outspending cash flows, BUT they are rapidly increasing the value of their proven reserves with all that drilling. Lightstream is doing the same thing.
Analyst make a big deal about the cash flow issue with Lightstream because it is viewed as a "yield investment". In fact, it is a growth company that just happens to payout a nice dividend. IMO it trade at a deep discount to its break-up value.
It is OK for them to be outspending their cash flows as long as proven reserves are growing faster. Take a look at CLR and you will see that they have been outspending their cash flows since inception and today the company has a market value over $20 Billion. Most of the Sweet 16 are outspending cash flows, BUT they are rapidly increasing the value of their proven reserves with all that drilling. Lightstream is doing the same thing.
Analyst make a big deal about the cash flow issue with Lightstream because it is viewed as a "yield investment". In fact, it is a growth company that just happens to payout a nice dividend. IMO it trade at a deep discount to its break-up value.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: LSTMF for High Yield and Growth
S&P Raises Lightstream Resources Ltd. Rtg To B+ From B; Outlk Stable
Oct 1, 2013 16:40:44 (ET)
Dow Jones Newswires
My valuation for LSTMF is over $17/share
Oct 1, 2013 16:40:44 (ET)
Dow Jones Newswires
My valuation for LSTMF is over $17/share
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: LSTMF for High Yield and Growth
Hi Dan, What did you think of Lightstream's 17%+ 3qtr number(s)? Still forecasting a 47K+ boepd exit rate. They mention working on the debt next year. The mkt gave the shares another body check today, for reasons mysterious to me.
Re: LSTMF for High Yield and Growth
Hard to understand this one on a day where the market is up big and oil and Nat gas up and it sells off BIG TIME. Down almost 8% on 6 times volume. Is it just fear causing the sell off? Seems like there are a lot of people selling and not many buying.
Re: LSTMF for High Yield and Growth
They got a downgrade this morning from Cormack (never heard of them) to market perform.
Amazing drop but it all seems like retail. 200 million shares and this loses 8% on 500k. Sheesh.
Amazing drop but it all seems like retail. 200 million shares and this loses 8% on 500k. Sheesh.
Re: LSTMF for High Yield and Growth
Dan, you got a feel on this one? Setting new multi year lows pretty much daily. A mystery to me
but that happens.
but that happens.
Re: LSTMF for High Yield and Growth
My forecast model is under the Watch List tab. I will update when Q3 actuals come out.
I personally think there is very little chance they will cut the dividend and even if they do the fundamentals are sound. They have lots of running room in the acreage they hold. I really like their Cardium play.
I personally think there is very little chance they will cut the dividend and even if they do the fundamentals are sound. They have lots of running room in the acreage they hold. I really like their Cardium play.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: LSTMF for High Yield and Growth
Hi Dan,
With oil down in the 90s in the week since your last update, LSTMF has been walloped again (today 5.75).
Granted, commodities have been in the doghouse for months now, but is there something behind this particular bizarre weakness that we're missing ?
With oil down in the 90s in the week since your last update, LSTMF has been walloped again (today 5.75).
Granted, commodities have been in the doghouse for months now, but is there something behind this particular bizarre weakness that we're missing ?
Re: LSTMF for High Yield and Growth
They release Q3 results tonight, so I will have something to say about it tomorrow.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: LSTMF for High Yield and Growth
Wow, what am I missing? They continue to grow production and reserves thru the drill bit and throw off more FCF.
They're covered for 2014 capex and just received authorization to repurchase 17 million shares on the open market
which is a value builder and money saver over debt repayment. Why are they not trading in the double digits?
They're covered for 2014 capex and just received authorization to repurchase 17 million shares on the open market
which is a value builder and money saver over debt repayment. Why are they not trading in the double digits?