Small-Cap Growth Portfolio

[dan_s]

My forecast models for all of the companies in the Small-Cap Growth Portfolio are now current. You can find them under the Watch List Tab.

Those that look VERY STRONG to me today are: CRZO, CRK, MTDR, SN, SFY, TPLM These companies are all candidates to move up to our Sweet 16 Growth Portfolio next year. I have VERY HIGH standards for our Sweet 16.

GST Pfd stock is a "Screaming Buy" if you are looking for low-risk + high dividend yield. Their common stock (GST) has more risk but a lot more upside if they start reporting strong results in Oklahoma.

AREX and HK are on my "Hold" list for now. They need to show us strong Q4 results. The main reason that I like AREX is because it looks like a PRIME takeover target to me. They hold a lot of acreage in the red hot Permian Basin.

EPM is debt free and rock solid. It is a one asset company, their non-operating interest in the Delhi Field operated by DNR. EPM has a pfd stock, but I don't recommend it since I think the company will call it at par ($25). If they do, the valuation of the common stock goes up.

MIND should report "so-so" fiscal Q3 results followed by VERY STRONG Q4 results. Their business is very seasonal. Q4 and Q1 are the best. Buying on the dips now should result in a nice profit in six months.

TGA looks great to me, but it is not for everyone. It is a pure play on Egypt oil. Unrest in Egypt has settled down and TGA seems to be working things out with the government. TGA has incredible exploration upside. Nice to see Yemen Block S1 back on-line. TGA is one of my original Sweet 16 companies and I have been tracking it closely since 2000. We made a ton of money on it in the early years of EPG. The management team is first class!

[bearcatbob]

Dan,

AREX is getting really hammered. It just got a positive mention on CNBC.

It looks to me like it is breaking long established support.

Is there any "word" on the street other than fear of falling POO.

Bob

[wilmawatts]

thanks Dan for the update

[dan_s]

Bob: AREX is down, but so is everything else today because of the misunderstanding about Obama's deal with Iran. Iran is not going to flood the global oil market with crude oil, so that fear should subside soon.

As I posted after their Q3 report, I was a bit disappointed by Approach's production during the quarter. IMO the company is now on HOLD until we see the Q4 results and year-end reserve report. Approach is more of an acreage play than a production growth story anyway, which is why I value it at a rather high CFPS multiple of 9X.

I will take another look at my forecast model and post an update in a few minutes.