Gran Tierra Energy (GTE): An updated profile and forecast model have been posted under the Sweet 16 Tab.
I have increased my Fair Value Estimate to $11.50. First Call's Price Target is $8.89.
GTE is a classic "channel stock". The shares closed yesterday at the bottom of the channel.
GTE will report a nice increase in oil production from Q3 to Q4. They sell all of their oil under contracts tied to Brent, so the recent pullback in WTI has no impact on them. Fundamentals are very strong on this one and they have two large oil discoveries that are moving toward development. Read the profile carefully.
GTE
Re: GTE
Operations update summarized by Briefing dot com with no mention of them being debt-free, but that's the wrinkle:
"5:02PM Gran Tierra Energy announces initial well results in Columbia and production update (GTE) 7.02 +0.16 : Co provided updates for its operations in Colombia:
"Gran Tierra Energy continues its successful 2013 drilling program with encouraging initial data from the Moqueta-12 and Mayalito-1 wells in the Putumayo and Llanos Basins in Colombia. Moqueta-12, based on log interpretations, does not appear to have encountered any water, suggesting we have yet to define the boundaries of the Moqueta field. Similarly, Mayalito-1 log interpretations indicate oil has been found in the Mirador formation, further extending the known lateral extent of the oil accumulation in the Ramiriqui discovery," said Dana Coffield, President and Chief Executive Officer of Gran Tierra Energy. "In addition, Gran Tierra Energy's 2013 exploration drilling has increased significantly with the Corunta-1, Miraflor West-1 and Zapotero-1 exploration wells initiating drilling in the Putumayo Basin," concluded Coffield.
Production, net after royalties and before changes in inventory for the months of October and November averaged approximately 21,500 barrels of oil equivalent per day ("BOEPD"). Gran Tierra Energy has recently completed its first Colombian crude sale of approximately 216,000 barrels of oil through the port of Esmeraldas, Ecuador. Year-to-date production, net after royalties and before changes in inventory, is approximately 22,200 BOEPD, above the mid-point of our projections of a range between 21,500 BOEPD and 22,500 BOEPD for 2013."
"5:02PM Gran Tierra Energy announces initial well results in Columbia and production update (GTE) 7.02 +0.16 : Co provided updates for its operations in Colombia:
"Gran Tierra Energy continues its successful 2013 drilling program with encouraging initial data from the Moqueta-12 and Mayalito-1 wells in the Putumayo and Llanos Basins in Colombia. Moqueta-12, based on log interpretations, does not appear to have encountered any water, suggesting we have yet to define the boundaries of the Moqueta field. Similarly, Mayalito-1 log interpretations indicate oil has been found in the Mirador formation, further extending the known lateral extent of the oil accumulation in the Ramiriqui discovery," said Dana Coffield, President and Chief Executive Officer of Gran Tierra Energy. "In addition, Gran Tierra Energy's 2013 exploration drilling has increased significantly with the Corunta-1, Miraflor West-1 and Zapotero-1 exploration wells initiating drilling in the Putumayo Basin," concluded Coffield.
Production, net after royalties and before changes in inventory for the months of October and November averaged approximately 21,500 barrels of oil equivalent per day ("BOEPD"). Gran Tierra Energy has recently completed its first Colombian crude sale of approximately 216,000 barrels of oil through the port of Esmeraldas, Ecuador. Year-to-date production, net after royalties and before changes in inventory, is approximately 22,200 BOEPD, above the mid-point of our projections of a range between 21,500 BOEPD and 22,500 BOEPD for 2013."
Re: GTE
Dan's latest profile for GTE shows a trading channel for the stock which has broken to the downside. TA guys may see this is a problem and that it suggests further downside. I'm nibbling now at $6.98 and watching for opportunity at lower levels. Brent pricing is holding up and China is buying most everything shipping through Ecuador, which is GTE's outlet.