Oasis Petroleum (OAS)

[dan_s]

Two of our members cornered me at today's luncheons to ask me what is wrong with Oasis. My answer is "nothing".

All of the Bakken companies (CLR, KOG, OAS and WLL) are off to a slow start because of weather related concerns. Obviously, North Dakota is a tough place to work in the winter and this was one hell of a winter.

WLL is the exception because it was so grossly undervalued coming into this year.

Oasis is going to have just slightly higher production in Q1 and Q2 but then production will ramp up sharply in Q3. I am expecting their production to be up more than 40% year-over-year. Their exit rate should be near 60,000 boepd, which is double where it was at 12-31-2013.

Accumulating OAS now should be very profitable in about six months.

IMO (after decades in this business) when high quality E&Ps dip because of weather related issue it is ALWAYS (say 99%) a buying opportunity. Weather does not impact the oil & gas in the ground.

We will publish an updated profile on OAS by March 31st, but my updated forecast model is available today under the Sweet 16 Tab.

[dan_s]

Oasis Petroleum (OAS): An updated Net Income & Cash Flow Forecast model has been posted under the Sweet 16 Tab.

My Fair Value Estimate is $68.20/share.

First Quarter results should be in-line with the current First Call EPS estimate, despite weather related difficulties. Production is going to ramp up "Big Time" during the 2nd half of this year.

[dan_s]

Add Triangle Petroleum (TPLM) to the list of Bakken companies that should be accumulated now for a run up into year-end.

TPLM has a January 31st fiscal year-end, so they will be reporting Q4 results in April.