Starting at about the 36 minute mark is a 20 minute interview by Jim Puplava of Marshall Adkins (Raymond James Energy Research Head).
You can pull the tab over if you don't want to listen to the first 36 minutes. The full show is an hour.
https://www.financialsensenewshour.com/ ... 1007-1.mp3
Marshall points out why I believe U.S. oil production I getting close to the peak and why oil prices must go higher to get the supply necessary to meet global demand.
Marshall Adkins - Interview from last 10/5
Marshall Adkins - Interview from last 10/5
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Marshall Adkins - Interview from last 10/5
Blackrock on commodities (They manage $5.6 Trillion): "We believe that the natural resources sector is still in the early stages of a cyclical recovery. Within this, we expect returns for natural resources companies to trend back toward the long-term averages; historically, the shares have performed strongly in such environments. Meanwhile, we expect commodities to continue to benefit from reflationary trends, with which come improved global economic growth expectations and increased inflation expectations. Supply of commodities is now being constrained by the underinvestment of natural resources companies in recent years; we expect this to support prices."
https://www.blackrock.com/investing/lit ... entary.pdf
https://www.blackrock.com/investing/lit ... entary.pdf
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Marshall Adkins - Interview from last 10/5
After you listen to the interview with Marshall, go to the EPG newsletter that we sent out via e-mail last night (around 8PM CT) and take a hard look at the chart at the top of page two.
The blue line on the chart is actual U.S. oil production through July and the yellow line is what EIA has been telling the market each week. The blue line clearly shows a flattening of U.S. production.
There is about a 90 day lag in getting "actual" production. It comes from the state regulatory agencies. The actuals for each month do change over time because the operating companies can amend their reports for up to a year. They do not change by much.
Since March the EIA has been over-estimating U.S. production by 150,000 to 220,000 BOPD.
The point is that if the EIA fixes this problem and reports that U.S. production growth has stalled, it may get a big reaction in the oil markets.
The blue line on the chart is actual U.S. oil production through July and the yellow line is what EIA has been telling the market each week. The blue line clearly shows a flattening of U.S. production.
There is about a 90 day lag in getting "actual" production. It comes from the state regulatory agencies. The actuals for each month do change over time because the operating companies can amend their reports for up to a year. They do not change by much.
Since March the EIA has been over-estimating U.S. production by 150,000 to 220,000 BOPD.
The point is that if the EIA fixes this problem and reports that U.S. production growth has stalled, it may get a big reaction in the oil markets.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Marshall Adkins - Interview from last 10/5
Other stuff:
Hedge funds and money managers modestly raised their bullish bets on U.S. crude for the third week in a row, data showed on Friday, even as prices slipped on worries of oversupply amid increased U.S. production and exports. The speculator group raised its combined futures and options position in two major NYMEX and ICE markets by 3,211 contracts to 288,766 in the week to October 3, its highest since mid-August, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data showed. This was reported by Reuters on 10/6/2017.
On 10/7/2017, Bloomberg reported that most crude oil production in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico remained shut in after Hurricane Nate struck the region and the southern U.S. The storm had weakened to a tropical depression by Sunday. About 1.62 million b/d of oil production in the Gulf, or about 93% of the region’s output, was halted as of Sunday, based on U.S. government estimates. The majority of gas production there was down.
On 10/4/2017, Bloomberg reported that Saudi Arabian King Salman, who arrived for the four-day state visit late Wednesday, called Russia a “friendly” country. He told Putin, who accepted the king’s invitation to visit Saudi Arabia, that their talks will boost the global economy as well as aid international stability and security.
Putin said Wednesday that Russia may agree to extend the oil-supply agreement with OPEC to the end of 2018, though he’ll wait to make a decision until nearer the expiry of the existing pact in March.
Saudi Arabia will secure Russian backing to prolong the oil agreement that took effect in January, “but the Kremlin will insist that the deal include some form of tapering,” Eurasia Group analysts including Ayham Kamel, Middle East and North Africa practice head, said in an emailed note. The visit “will lay the foundation for strategic cooperation that transcends energy issues, though the Saudis have no intention of abandoning their deep partnership with the U.S.”
Cooperation between Russia and Saudi Arabia “breathed life back into OPEC” and made his country more optimistic about the outlook for oil than it has been for several years, Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih said after meeting with his Russian counterpart Alexander Novak on Thursday. The “success of this collaboration is clear,” he said. King Salman is visiting as Saudi Arabia looks to deepen energy ties with Russia by inking deals to acquire oil and gas assets. Sibur Holding PJSC signed an agreement on joint oil-refining projects with Saudi Arabian Oil Co., known as Saudi Aramco. Other deals may involve Saudi participation in an Arctic LNG project led by Novatek PJSC (NVTK-NC) and investment into Eurasia Drilling Co., Russia’s largest oil drilling contractor.
Hedge funds and money managers modestly raised their bullish bets on U.S. crude for the third week in a row, data showed on Friday, even as prices slipped on worries of oversupply amid increased U.S. production and exports. The speculator group raised its combined futures and options position in two major NYMEX and ICE markets by 3,211 contracts to 288,766 in the week to October 3, its highest since mid-August, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data showed. This was reported by Reuters on 10/6/2017.
On 10/7/2017, Bloomberg reported that most crude oil production in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico remained shut in after Hurricane Nate struck the region and the southern U.S. The storm had weakened to a tropical depression by Sunday. About 1.62 million b/d of oil production in the Gulf, or about 93% of the region’s output, was halted as of Sunday, based on U.S. government estimates. The majority of gas production there was down.
On 10/4/2017, Bloomberg reported that Saudi Arabian King Salman, who arrived for the four-day state visit late Wednesday, called Russia a “friendly” country. He told Putin, who accepted the king’s invitation to visit Saudi Arabia, that their talks will boost the global economy as well as aid international stability and security.
Putin said Wednesday that Russia may agree to extend the oil-supply agreement with OPEC to the end of 2018, though he’ll wait to make a decision until nearer the expiry of the existing pact in March.
Saudi Arabia will secure Russian backing to prolong the oil agreement that took effect in January, “but the Kremlin will insist that the deal include some form of tapering,” Eurasia Group analysts including Ayham Kamel, Middle East and North Africa practice head, said in an emailed note. The visit “will lay the foundation for strategic cooperation that transcends energy issues, though the Saudis have no intention of abandoning their deep partnership with the U.S.”
Cooperation between Russia and Saudi Arabia “breathed life back into OPEC” and made his country more optimistic about the outlook for oil than it has been for several years, Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih said after meeting with his Russian counterpart Alexander Novak on Thursday. The “success of this collaboration is clear,” he said. King Salman is visiting as Saudi Arabia looks to deepen energy ties with Russia by inking deals to acquire oil and gas assets. Sibur Holding PJSC signed an agreement on joint oil-refining projects with Saudi Arabian Oil Co., known as Saudi Aramco. Other deals may involve Saudi participation in an Arctic LNG project led by Novatek PJSC (NVTK-NC) and investment into Eurasia Drilling Co., Russia’s largest oil drilling contractor.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Marshall Adkins - Interview from last 10/5
From Bloomberg:
One of the biggest stores of oil at sea is showing signs of emptying out. The volume of supplies held on tankers in the Strait of Malacca in September dropped to the lowest level since August 2016, according to data from cargo-tracking and intelligence company Kpler. The waters off Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia held 8.1 million barrels late last month on a 10-day moving average basis, compared with about 30 million in May.
One of the biggest stores of oil at sea is showing signs of emptying out. The volume of supplies held on tankers in the Strait of Malacca in September dropped to the lowest level since August 2016, according to data from cargo-tracking and intelligence company Kpler. The waters off Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia held 8.1 million barrels late last month on a 10-day moving average basis, compared with about 30 million in May.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group