Oil Storage Report - October 18

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dan_s
Posts: 37328
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Oil Storage Report - October 18

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The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that crude oil inventories fell by 5.73 million barrels in the week ended October 13.

Market analysts' expected a decline of around 4.24 million barrels, while the American Petroleum Institute late Tuesday reported a supply-drop of 7.1 million barrels.

Supplies at Cushing, Oklahoma, the key delivery point for Nymex crude, increased by 202,000 barrels last week.

The report also showed that gasoline inventories rose by 908,000 barrels, compared to expectations for an increase of 256,000 barrels.
For distillate inventories including diesel, the EIA reported a gain of 528,000 barrels.
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I am expecting weekly draws from U.S. crude oil storage of 4 to 8 million barrels through year-end as U.S. refineries ramp up to replenish refined product inventories that were drawn down during the hurricanes. Demand for refined products being shipped from the U.S. to South America and Europe remains high. Demand for light crude oil from the U.S. is also high.

Demand for oil currently exceeds supply by 1.2 to 1.5 million barrels per day. OECD inventories are falling and IMO they are already back to "normal" levels. All previous oil cycles over-shot the mark and this one will be no different than all the rest of them. Yesterday's "clut" will turn into a "shortage" in 2018.

Have you noticed a drop in gasoline prices? That is because filling stations can now sell winter blends of gasoline. Winter blends contain more NGLs, which are much cheaper than crude oil.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
dan_s
Posts: 37328
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Re: Oil Storage Report - October 18

Post by dan_s »

I have been telling EPG members for months in my weekly podcasts that is impossible for upstream companies to meet rising demand for oil if the price remains under $50/bbl. This article will help you understand why: https://www.investing.com/analysis/the- ... -200219534

I now think that the price of oil must go over $60/bbl within six month or we will be looking at shortages by the end of 2018.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
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