NYC likely to get over a foot of snow today (3/7)

[dan_s]

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The natural gas storage report for the week ending on March 2 comes out tomorrow. It may look bearish on the surface because the 5-year average for the same week is a draw of 133 Bcf. I doubt the draw for last week will be close to that.

However, the storage reports for the last three weeks of March should be quite bullish because they will probably be over 100 Bcf draws (at least the first two will be) and they will compare to 5-year average draws of about half that amount.

Natural gas storage is going to end up 700 to 800 Bcf below where it was at the end of the last winter heating season. In a "normal world" that would push gas prices much higher than were we are today. We now live in a world where EIA keeps telling us that a lot more gas production is coming "just ahead", but actual data says supply is running over 2 Bcfpd below demand.

If draws from storage extend into April, shortening the refill season, it should support higher gas prices. But we don't live in a normal world anymore.