EIA Reports actual U.S. oil producton for January

[dan_s]

EIA Jan '18 Production per 914 Report: Production freeze-offs keep U.S. production ~flat m/m

Comments from TPH: Reported U.S. production was up a de-minimis 7mbpd m/m as January saw pro-forma Permian volumes (NM & TX) fall 73mbpd m/m. 2018 opened with extreme weather and subsequent production freeze-offs across the continental U.S. as the weekly DOE prod estimates fell 290kbpd w/w before recovering through the rest of the month. Monthly volumes were likely impacted by ~72mbpd m/m, largely in-line with the lower 48 trends (down 72mbpd m/m). Surprisingly, Anadarko (Oklahoma) volumes were up 27mbpd m/m while the GOM was able escape their doldrums, up 79mbpd m/m. Overall, the 914 data was in-line with our expectations and further reinforces our view of a slow Q1'18. Expect Permian volumes to continue being the focus for the Feb '18 data, but remember that the monthly growth will likely be exaggerated by the January production freeze-off attributed weakness.
---------------------
EIA reports ESTIMATED U.S. crude oil production each Wednesday. Those number are "WAGs" based on formulas that are heavily weighted to trends leading up to the week. Actual production comes from state reports and is not known for several months, plus it is revised numerous times over a year. "Actuals" are often much different than the EIA's weekly "Estimates".