Oil Price - May 7 / WTI opens over $70

dan_s · Post by **dan_s** » Mon May 07, 2018 9:15 am

I am in Dallas today speaking at the Mick Law Energy Conference. It should be a much happier crowd this year.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-glob ... SKBN1I800Z

U.S. crude oil prices rose 70 cents, or 1 percent, pushing above $70 a barrel for the first time since November 2014 as the crisis in OPEC member state Venezuela threatened to further crimp its production and exports.

Brent crude oil futures were at $75.55 per barrel at 0945 GMT, up 0.9 percent and having also touched their highest since November 2014.

Also driving oil prices higher was the May 12 deadline set by U.S. President Donald Trump for Europeans to “fix” the deal with Iran over its nuclear program. If they do not, Trump has said he would refuse to extend U.S. sanctions relief for the oil-producing Islamic Republic.
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Last week's data: It is important to remember that EIA's weekly reports are just their Wild Ass Guesses ("WAGs").

On 4/30/2018, Reuters reported U.S. crude oil production jumped 260,000 b/d to 10.3 million b/d in February, the highest on record, the Energy Information Administration reported. Production in Texas rose by 106,000 b/d to above 4 million b/d, also a record high based on the data going back to 2005. Output from North Dakota declined marginally to 1.15 million b/d, while output in the federal Gulf of Mexico rose by 89,000 b/d to 1.72 million b/d. The agency also revised January U.S. oil production up by 40,000 b/d to about 10.004 million b/d.

U.S. natural gas production in the Lower 48 states rose to an all-time high of 87.6 Bcf/d in February, up from the prior record of 87.3 Bcf/d in December, according to the EIA. Output in Texas, the nation's largest gas producer, increased 1.5% in February to 22.4 Bcf/d, the most since December. In Pennsylvania, the second biggest gas producer, production increased 2.1% to a record high 16.4 Bcf/d in February. That compares with 15.0 Bcf/d in the same month a year ago.

Total oil demand in U.S. in February was up 2.4%, or 460,000 b/d, to 19.62 million b/d versus last year (this is demand for refined products), EIA data showed, as strong demand for distillates helped soften weakness in gasoline demand. Distillate demand in February was up 1.5%, or 57,000 b/d, to 3.96 million b/d versus last year. Gasoline demand in February was down 1.9%, or 169,000 b/d, to 8.81 million b/d. Gasoline demand was up 2.8% year-over-year in January.

On 4/30/2018, Reuters reported OPEC oil output fell in April to a one-year low due to declining production in Venezuela and lower shipments from African producers, a Reuters survey found, sending compliance with a supply-cutting deal to another record. OPEC pumped 32.12 million b/d in April, the survey found, down 70,000 b/d from March. The April total is the lowest since April 2017, according to Reuters surveys. Adherence by producers in the deal rose to 162% of agreed cuts from a revised 161% in March, the survey found. There was, again, no sign that Saudi Arabia or other big producers had boosted output significantly to cash in on higher prices or to compensate for the Venezuelan decline. < My WAG is outside of Saudi Arabia, all OPEC members have no excess production capacity.

On 5/1/2018, Bloomberg reported a 2 million barrel supertanker arrived for the first time at a jetty in Texas City as surging U.S. oil output drives up incentives to export. The Nave Quasar, a Very Large Crude Carrier, arrived at the Gulf of Mexico terminal on Friday morning, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. The Nave Quasar is just over 1,000 feet long, making it the largest ship to ever enter the Houston Ship Channel. That’s more than three football fields end-to-end. The tanker is being brought into Enterprise Products Partners LP’s Texas City terminal to determine measurements for future VLCC loadings, according to a person familiar with the matter. Nave Quasar will not load any supplies at this time for shipment, the person said. This site’s water depth, also known as draft, needs to be increased to about 76 feet from 45 feet to enable supertankers to fully load.