Natural Gas Storage Report - May 17

[dan_s]

Working gas in storage was 1,538 Bcf as of Friday, May 11, 2018, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 106 Bcf from the previous week.
Stocks were 821 Bcf less than last year at this time and 501 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,039 Bcf. At 1,538 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

This build is 18 Bcf above the 5-year average.

The chance of gas in storage getting back to the 5-year average before the start of next winter is under 10%.

The chance of gas in storage getting back to where it was last year before the start of the next winter is under 1%.

We may see a couple more triple digit builds, but then summer demand for power generation will ramp up.

[dan_s]

Over the last 52-weeks, the delta to the 5-year average has been -794 Bcf.

The point is that natural gas supply is increasing in the U.S. but demand for the gas is also increasing rapidly. Over the last 52 weeks, demand has exceeded supply and the demand is not all weather related. Industrial demand and exports are much higher today.