Natural Gas Storage Report - June 14

[dan_s]

Working gas in storage was 1,913 Bcf as of Friday, June 8, 2018, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 96 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 785 Bcf less than last year at this time and 507 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,420 Bcf. At 1,913 Bcf, total working gas is close to the bottom of the five-year historical range.

The "Shoulder Season" is coming to an end and over the last six weeks a grand total of 8 Bcf has been cut from the deficit to the 5-year average.

There are 22 weeks remaining before the next winter heating season begins (mid-November). We need 4,200 Bcf in storage by the week of Thanksgiving to safely meet space heating demand during a NORMAL winter.
Here is why I believe it is now almost impossible for gas storage to reach that level:
4,200 - 1,913 = 2,287 Bcf. 2,287 / 22 weeks = 104 Bcf per week average inventory build that we'd need to reach 4,200 Bcf.
We have NEVER averaged 100 Bcf builds during this period of the year.
If fact, the average weekly build is 64 Bcf over the next 22 weeks. Check it for yourself at http://www.americanoilman.com/

EIA keeps telling the market that a huge surge in natural gas supply is just around the corner, but we never get closer to the corner. My Take is that demand is growing much faster than EIA thought it would.

The short-term outlook for natural gas and for NGL prices is very bullish.