Note from Keith Kohl at Energy & Capital 7-18-2018:
"The latest reports showed that Venezuelan output fell to just 1.3 million barrels per day in June. For the record, that’s a month-over-month decline of about 48,000 barrels per day. But let’s put a little perspective on that, shall we? That’s the lowest it’s been since the country helped found OPEC back in 1960 — 58 years ago!
More importantly, there is absolutely no realistic way Venezuela turns things around. That’s going to have serious consequences for global markets..."
Keith and lots of other very smart people, think Venezuela's oil exports go to zero early in 2019. Saudi Arabia and the rest of the OPEC cartel members cannot make up the difference even if all of the other failed states in OPEC (Libya, Nigeria, Angola, Iran, etc.) can keep it together. The odd of that happening are also zero.
Raymond James presented at our Houston luncheon on Monday. The speaker said that RJ's "official" forecast is $70/bbl WTI in 2H 2018, but he told us that there is a lot of upside if Venezuela and/or Iran go off the cliff.
BTW pulling a few million barrels from the SPR will be like pissing on a forest fire if both countries go over the cliff.