EIA Weekly Petroleum Update - Sept 19

[dan_s]

Despite increasing imports and increasing domestic production, crude oil inventories keep declining. < BECAUSE DEMAND REMAINS QUITE HIGH.

EIA: Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending September 14, 2018 (My comments are in blue)

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 17.4 million barrels per day during the week ending September 14, 2018, which was 442,000 barrels per day less than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 95.4% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 10.3 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production decreased last week, averaging 5.5 million barrels per day. < Refineries running at over 95% is high for this time of year. Demand for refined products remains quite high and distillate inventories are too low as we head toward winter and demand for diesel exports is very high.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 8.0 million barrels per day last week, up by 433,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 7.7 million barrels per day, 6.9% more than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 561,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 141,000 barrels per day. < The U.S. is still a long way from energy independence.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 2.1 million barrels from the previous week.
> At 394.1 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 3% below the five year average for this time of year. < Days of supply are way too low.
> Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 1.7 million barrels last week and are about 8% above the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories increased while blending components inventories decreased last week.
> Distillate fuel inventories increased by 0.8 million barrels last week and are about 2% below the five year average for this time of year.
> Propane/propylene inventories increased by 0.1 million barrels last week and are about 12% below the five year average for this time of year. < Bullish for NGL prices.
> Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased last week by 0.4 million barrels last week.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 21.4 million barrels per day, up by 4.9% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 9.7 million barrels per day, up by 2.0% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 4.0 million barrels per day over the past four weeks, down by 0.8% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was up 5.0% compared with the same four-week period last year.
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Overall, this is mildly bullish and should push WTI over $70/bbl. There is no evidence of a decline in demand for hydrocarbon based liquids, most of which are refined from crude oil. This world runs on diesel and inventories of this critical transportation fuel are way too low.