Natural Gas Storage Report - Nov 1

[dan_s]

Working gas in storage was 3,143 Bcf as of Friday, October 26, 2018, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 48 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 623 Bcf less than last year at this time and 638 Bcf below the five-year average of 3,781 Bcf. At 3,143 Bcf, total working gas is below the five-year historical range.

The delta to the 5-year average grows by another 13 Bcf.

There are only three weeks remaining in the "Refill Season" that ends November 16th this year.

Storage is still 107 Bcf below my SWAG of 3,250 Bcf in storage when the Winter Heating Season begins.
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Mother Nature will have a BIG IMPACT on the near-term price of natural gas from November to April:
Per today's daily update here: https://www.weatherbell.com/premium/
> November will start off colder than normal, with Nov 7-12 expected to be the coldest period for the month
> Joe expects a warmer than normal back half of November before a COLD December
> "A wet fall leads to a cold and stormy winter".

The Wall Street Gang's consensus is that the "Gassers" can quickly ramp up gas production to meet demand during a cold winter. That concept is wrong. Starting the winter with over 600 Bcf less gas in storage cannot be "fixed" by quickly running out a few rigs and completion crews. I stay with my opinion that a normal December will send gas prices much higher than where they are today. If we get a colder than normal winter in the Eastern Half of the U.S. we will see double digit gas prices in the Henry Hub Spot Market in December or January.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/421397 ... 19?page=16