EIA - Weekly Petroleum Report Nov 16

[dan_s]

Comments from the TPH Morning Report.

EIA reported a massive 10.3mmbbl build total crude inventories (vs 3.2mmbbl expectations) while Cushing built 1.2mmbbls. Additionally, 1.4mmbbls were released from the SPR. Since the end of September 6.7mmbbls of the previously authorized 11mmbbls have been released. Refinery utilization & crude runs up marginally to 16.43mmbpd and 90.1%. Still expect utilization to pick up meaningfully towards the end of November / December. Based on the 5-yr norm, December utilization is ~2.4% higher than that in November while 2017 utilization was ~3.6% higher. Distillates drew 3.6mmbbls while gasoline drew 1.4mmbbls. Estimated US production was up ~100mbpd w/w (rounded to the nearest 100mbpd), but we continue to expect production growth to slow meaningfully through year end due to CAPEX exhaustion. Crude exports fell ~350mbpd w/w to 2,050mbpd, marking the 4th straight of week of exports above 2,000mbpd.

We should see storage flatten in December as refinery utilization picks up. Cushing is only 60% full, so not a concern.