EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report - Jan 24

[dan_s]

Working gas in storage was 2,370 Bcf as of Friday, January 18, 2019, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decrease of 163 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 33 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 305 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,675 Bcf. At 2,370 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

Based on the "Polar Vortex" weather forecast, I now expect over a TCF (1,000 BCF) to be withdrawn from storage over the next 4 weeks.
This compares to:
> 700 BCF draws during the same four weeks last winter
> 645 BCF draws for five year average during the next four weeks

So, the deficit to the 5-year average should balloon to ~660 BCF on February 15th.

If the weather is just normal for February 16 to March 31st, another 500 BCF will be drained from storage. So, we are on-track for ending storage of 800 to 900 BCF, which compares to the 5-year average of 1,637 BCF. That will add over 3 BCF per day of demand during the refill season (~200 days long), which should keep natural gas prices over $2.75 during the summer.

If winter weather extends into April (like it did last year), then we have the makings for a very interesting summer of the "gassers". It is all up to Mother Nature now and the speculators the set the futures prices.

[dan_s]

For hard data on gas storage levels, go here: http://americanoilman.homestead.com/Home.html