Oil Price - April 3

[dan_s]

Note from Raymond James Energy Team based in Houston on 4-3-2019:
"Even with the strong bounce year-to-date, the oil market is still down from last year’s highs. While sentiment on oil remains choppy, we see a broadly supportive fundamental backdrop: the larger U.S. producers are exhibiting restraint in capital allocation; OPEC+Russia’s production cuts are noticeably contributing to inventory draws; the picture for global demand growth is broadly upbeat; and IMO 2020 is looming nine months from now. The 12-month futures strip ($61.89/Bbl for WTI and $67.73/Bbl for Brent) shows modest short-to-medium term backwardation for Brent, followed by a relatively flat curve; for comparison, our 2019 forecast is $62 WTI/$72 Brent and 2020 forecast is $92.50 WTI/$100 Brent.
Several wild cards remain in play, such as: 1) on the bullish side, the possibility of supply disruptions above and beyond the current ones, such as the very uncertain political situation in Venezuela; and 2) on the bearish side, the prospect of global macro slowdown and resulting impact on oil demand."

RJ's "official forecast" is that WTI will average $65 in Q3 and $75 in Q4.

My guess is that WTI will flop around in the $60 to $65 range through April and then move higher as refiners ramp up to 95% utilization in May. < This assumes OPEC+ sticks to their production cuts.