RJ's take on Latin American Oil Production - Sept 16

[dan_s]

Raymond James sent out a new report on Latin America's oil industry this morning.

Conclusion: Continued decline in 2019 with only a slight uptick in 2020.

Apparently, socialist dictatorships don't work very well: Venezuela oil supply is down a staggering 65% since 2015.

Although Venezuela’s oil production had peaked all the way back in 2000, its meltdown since 2015 has been truly in a league of its own: down 1.5
million bpd (or 65%). No other major oil-producing country over the past four years has experienced anything like this. Taking a longer historical
perspective, the only comparable production declines have occurred as a result of outright war. Venezuela’s general economic collapse - in the
context of President Maduro's disastrous, socialist policies - has had a worse impact on the domestic oil industry than even the post-Qadhafi civil
war in Libya.

Every time it feels like Venezuela cannot get any worse... it somehow does. The Maduro regime is facing intense domestic opposition and has been
abandoned by many countries in the region, though for now it is still being propped up by the military and financial support from Russia. The
opposition leader Juan Guaido's attempt in early 2019 to force Maduro out of the office went nowhere, and the impact of U.S. sanctions is minor
when compared to the overall economic and humanitarian catastrophe. At this point, regime change (whether a voluntary resignation or a
coup) is not readily visible, so we are assuming status quo with Maduro until proven otherwise.

Send me an email if you'd like to read the full report: dmsteffens@comcast.net