EIA - Natural Gas Storage Report - Feb 13

[dan_s]

Working gas in storage was 2,494 Bcf as of Friday, February 7, 2020, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decrease of 115 Bcf from the previous week.
Stocks were 601 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 215 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,279 Bcf.
At 2,494 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

The only chance that I see for natural gas moving above $2.00/MMBtu is for winter weather in the Eastern U.S. to hang on thru April.

The 5-year average for storage at the end of the heating season, which usually ends on March 31st, is 1,698 Bcf.

I am now assuming that ngas will average $1.80/mcf in 2020 and 2021 all of my forecast/valuation models.