COViD-19 Virus Update - What do we know?

[dan_s]

WHAT WE KNOW ABOUT COVID-19 SO FAR from River Front Investment Group

COVID-19 is a unique challenge for investors, with so much still unknown both about the disease and its ultimate
effects on the global economy. However, as the epidemic enters its 2nd month and the worldwide infection rate
nears 100,000, some characteristics are becoming clearer. Ironically, the more we learn about the virus, the less
‘existential’ its risks appear.

It does not appear nearly as dangerous as many past global epidemic concerns, such as SARS or Ebola. A
quote from the Wall Street Journal last Thursday: “SARS killed about 10% of the people it infected, while about
2.9% of the people confirmed to be infected with this new coronavirus have died, according to World Health
Organization data.” It’s also reasonable to believe that the ultimate mortality rate of COVID-19 will be lower than the
current rate, simply because its asymptomatic nature (many carriers will never show symptoms) means that
scientists are probably understating the total infection rate currently.

It does not appear to be mutating. COVID-19 has remained genetically stable so far, according to the US CDC.
There are no known vaccines or treatments approved yet, but several are in development. Technological
progress in the last few years means that the genetic code of COVID-19 has been sequenced and decoded much
faster than prior epidemics, leading to accelerated vaccine development (source Wall Street Journal, 2/25/20). In
addition, existing anti-viral drugs that were effective on Ebola are also being tested.

OVER 55% OF THE PEOPLE WHO HAVE TESTED POSITIVE FOR COVID-19 HAVE FULLY RECOVERED WITHOUT A VACCINE OR TREATMENT OTHER THAN BED REST AND FLUIDS. THEY GET OVER IT IN 7-10 DAYS. FOR HEALTHY PEOPLE IT IS NOT AS BAD AS THE SEASONAL FLU.