I have updated my COVID-19 Tracking Spreadsheet and posted it to the EPG spreadsheet.
BIG QUESTION: Are the numbers being reported by the Asian nations accurate? If so, the World Health Organization and our CDC need to take a hard look at what they are doing.
4 Asian nations that have the highest number of confirmed cases are China, South Korea, Malaysia and Japan.
These countries hold 20.74% of the world's population, obviously a significant sample size.
Plus they have much higher population density than the USA. So, if COVID-19 is highly contagious it is logical that it would spread faster in countries with high population density.
Numbers from the top 4 Asian nations
93,661 Confirmed Cases, with very few new cases being added
77,987 People that have recovered
3,473 Deaths
------------------
12,327 Active Cases < ~95% are considered mild and expected to recover
================
Numbers for all countries
436,159 < Confirmed Cases < Compares to global population of ~7,800,000,000
111,847 < People who have recovered
19,648 < Death
---------------
304,664 < Active Cases
===============
Observations and Questions:
> Details on the 111,847 people that have recovered is the key to solving this. Age, health history, demographics, what treatment did they get to get better.
> Details on people who have died is also extremely important. Same stuff as above and also condition they were in when they were hospitalized. Did some die at home / without care?
Good news is the increase of more than 8,000 people who have recovered in the last 24 hours.
USA shows just 354 people that have recovered. WHY? My guess is that we aren't following up on all of the mild cases that are sent home after being tested.
Italy is the worst situation, but at least the number of people who have recovered (8,6326) now exceeds the number who have died (6,820).
Death rate in Iran has also slowed down.
Updates on drugs and other treatments that are working to cure people is the best way to calm the fears.
COVID-19 Virus Update - Mar 25
COVID-19 Virus Update - Mar 25
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: COVID-19 Virus Update - Mar 25
The media loves to report the number confirmed cases and the number of deaths.
BTW the number of confirmed cases will never go down. It is a running total of all humans that have tested positive.
The most important number is the active cases. That number must stabilize so the hospital situations can calm down.
The number of active cases in the top 4 Asian nations is going down.
Not counting Italy, the number of active cases in Europe is still going up, but at a slower rate.
Canada moved into the top 25 and has move up to #16 in countries with the most confirmed cases. Like the USA, Canada has recently opened a lot more testing facilities.
As of 8:30PM ET on March 24: Texas had 986 confirmed cases and 12 deaths.
Data by State: https://www.npr.org/sections/health-sho ... in-the-u-s
BTW the number of confirmed cases will never go down. It is a running total of all humans that have tested positive.
The most important number is the active cases. That number must stabilize so the hospital situations can calm down.
The number of active cases in the top 4 Asian nations is going down.
Not counting Italy, the number of active cases in Europe is still going up, but at a slower rate.
Canada moved into the top 25 and has move up to #16 in countries with the most confirmed cases. Like the USA, Canada has recently opened a lot more testing facilities.
As of 8:30PM ET on March 24: Texas had 986 confirmed cases and 12 deaths.
Data by State: https://www.npr.org/sections/health-sho ... in-the-u-s
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: COVID-19 Virus Update - Mar 25
BIG QUESTION: Are the numbers being reported by the Asian nations accurate?
Have you ever lived in Asia? How well do you understand the cultures there?
Surely you are not accepting China's data as representative of the extent of spread of COVID-19 or of their mortality from COVID-19.
Regarding Japan, read the Asia times article and the Jefferies note I just posted. "Don't test, don't tell" is about to come home to roost there.
Have you ever lived in Asia? How well do you understand the cultures there?
Surely you are not accepting China's data as representative of the extent of spread of COVID-19 or of their mortality from COVID-19.
Regarding Japan, read the Asia times article and the Jefferies note I just posted. "Don't test, don't tell" is about to come home to roost there.
Re: COVID-19 Virus Update - Mar 25
It has been confirmed that South Korea has the virus under control. This is VERY IMPORTANT because South Korea has super high population density of 1,339 people per square mile. This compares to less than 100 per square mile in the U.S.
Read this: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/how- ... e-n1167376
You can believe what you wish about China, but the fact remains that America must eventually go back to work. The government can pass massive stimulus plans but if we are all hiding under beds and no one is working, the food and supplies needed to survive will eventually run out. If you want to see death rates go up, visit a country where there is not enough food. Venezuela is a good example. Just Google news from Venezuela and all you see is a failed state with poverty, starvation and death.
In Harris County there are 33 confirmed cases of COVID-19 per million people. See this for each county in Texas: https://covid-19.direct/county/TX/Fort%20Bend
This does not mean that 33 people will die and their obviously will be more confirmed cases. Let's say it goes up by 100X to 3,300 cases and 5% die so we have 165 deaths related to the COVID-19 (ignoring the fact that a high percentage of the people had serious health issues before getting the virus).
My point is that a heck of a lot more people than that will die in Houston this year. I'm a "numbers guy", so let's see if lots of people do die in Texas each year.
The most recent data I can find shows > The age-adjusted death rate for Texas in 2013 was 761.7 deaths per 100,000 population. The age-adjusted death rate for males was 864.9 in 2013 and the rate for females was 671.3. The age-adjusted death rate for Whites and Others, regardless of gender, was 784.4 deaths per 100,000 population.
Harris County has a population of 4.1 million, so there will be approximately 32,160 deaths in Harris County this year. 165 more deaths is a rounding error.
I get that death sucks. Getting the flu sucks and lots of people die from the flu. Poverty and starvation also sucks. Maybe this is why President Trump thinks American needs to move on and get back to work.
This doesn't mean we should stop looking for a cure. That should be Job 1 for all of our medical research teams.
Read this: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/how- ... e-n1167376
You can believe what you wish about China, but the fact remains that America must eventually go back to work. The government can pass massive stimulus plans but if we are all hiding under beds and no one is working, the food and supplies needed to survive will eventually run out. If you want to see death rates go up, visit a country where there is not enough food. Venezuela is a good example. Just Google news from Venezuela and all you see is a failed state with poverty, starvation and death.
In Harris County there are 33 confirmed cases of COVID-19 per million people. See this for each county in Texas: https://covid-19.direct/county/TX/Fort%20Bend
This does not mean that 33 people will die and their obviously will be more confirmed cases. Let's say it goes up by 100X to 3,300 cases and 5% die so we have 165 deaths related to the COVID-19 (ignoring the fact that a high percentage of the people had serious health issues before getting the virus).
My point is that a heck of a lot more people than that will die in Houston this year. I'm a "numbers guy", so let's see if lots of people do die in Texas each year.
The most recent data I can find shows > The age-adjusted death rate for Texas in 2013 was 761.7 deaths per 100,000 population. The age-adjusted death rate for males was 864.9 in 2013 and the rate for females was 671.3. The age-adjusted death rate for Whites and Others, regardless of gender, was 784.4 deaths per 100,000 population.
Harris County has a population of 4.1 million, so there will be approximately 32,160 deaths in Harris County this year. 165 more deaths is a rounding error.
I get that death sucks. Getting the flu sucks and lots of people die from the flu. Poverty and starvation also sucks. Maybe this is why President Trump thinks American needs to move on and get back to work.
This doesn't mean we should stop looking for a cure. That should be Job 1 for all of our medical research teams.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: COVID-19 Virus Update - Mar 25
"You can believe what you wish about China, but the fact remains that America must eventually go back to work. The government can pass massive stimulus plans but if we are all hiding under beds and no one is working, the food and supplies needed to survive will eventually run out."
I greatly appreciate all the information you post, but your hyperbole just doesn't advance the discussion.
All I did was answer your question about data from Japan, in particular, which you have repeatedly cited (along with that of China, S. Korea and Malaysia) as being "extremely important" and warrants our scrutiny because, you have been claiming, they have gotten COVID-19 under control. Monday, you said, "PLEASE don't post that all of the Asian countries are lying to us. There are way too many eyes covering this for that to be possible."
It turns out that Japan has had a de facto "Don't test, don't tell" policy, consistent, apparently, with how their government has handled other crises, and the situation there is reportedly rapidly changing for the worse. I brought that information to the board, and, re China, asked whether you really believe that China is testing everyone who has been exposed or has symptoms and then accurately reporting positive test results.
Rather than answer the question, you now ignore Japan and, re China, respond that I can believe what I "wish" about China. No, I am going to believe whatever reliable data show about China, not what I "wish." I know of no responsible authority that believes China's reported data represents either the spread of COVID-19 there or their mortality rate. You, on the other hand, apparently still claim to know of such reliable reports. Please share such with us, including identifying anyone trustworthy saying the Chinese data are representative of what is actually going on there.
Back to Japan. Do you still claim Japan has COVID-19 under control? As much as I hope (and until today had accepted) that you are correct, aren't what is reported in the Jefferies note and the Asia Times article troubling to you? Or, is Japan no longer "extremely important" to your analysis?
"America must eventually go back to work." Nobody has said otherwise. Your hyperbolic statement is typical misdirection from the real issue: when, and in what areas, will testing data show we have flattened the curve, reducing rate of spread to the point that, together with all prevention measures we can identify and deploy, we can intelligently reopen those work areas that are not now functional? Knowing what the data show can't happen until we have the data, which is rapidly being accumulated (now that testing is meaningfully ramping). But we don't have it now, so decisions, that necessarily have to be data driven, can't yet be made.
You and Dan Patrick forget that if as a nation we "all go back to work" before testing data, et al, show we have sufficiently reduced spread, instead of doing so in stages (and likely regionally), when testing results on the ground support the conclusion that we are, we would risk not just Dan Patrick's and your lives, but also the lives of every other person (including our health care workers) who would be much more likely to be adversely impacted by such an uninformed strategy.
"if we are all hiding under beds and no one is working ..." is just more inaccurate hyperbole that makes you feel better, but it hinders, not helps, intelligent analysis/discussion.
"food and supplies needed to survive will eventually run out" More hyperbole, this time, spreading unwarranted fear, a tactic you are so quick to criticize. Our country produces huge quantities of food and energy, and if we approach this intelligently and with patience, that will continue, as will the ability to put food on shelves and gasoline in our tanks.
I greatly appreciate all the information you post, but your hyperbole just doesn't advance the discussion.
All I did was answer your question about data from Japan, in particular, which you have repeatedly cited (along with that of China, S. Korea and Malaysia) as being "extremely important" and warrants our scrutiny because, you have been claiming, they have gotten COVID-19 under control. Monday, you said, "PLEASE don't post that all of the Asian countries are lying to us. There are way too many eyes covering this for that to be possible."
It turns out that Japan has had a de facto "Don't test, don't tell" policy, consistent, apparently, with how their government has handled other crises, and the situation there is reportedly rapidly changing for the worse. I brought that information to the board, and, re China, asked whether you really believe that China is testing everyone who has been exposed or has symptoms and then accurately reporting positive test results.
Rather than answer the question, you now ignore Japan and, re China, respond that I can believe what I "wish" about China. No, I am going to believe whatever reliable data show about China, not what I "wish." I know of no responsible authority that believes China's reported data represents either the spread of COVID-19 there or their mortality rate. You, on the other hand, apparently still claim to know of such reliable reports. Please share such with us, including identifying anyone trustworthy saying the Chinese data are representative of what is actually going on there.
Back to Japan. Do you still claim Japan has COVID-19 under control? As much as I hope (and until today had accepted) that you are correct, aren't what is reported in the Jefferies note and the Asia Times article troubling to you? Or, is Japan no longer "extremely important" to your analysis?
"America must eventually go back to work." Nobody has said otherwise. Your hyperbolic statement is typical misdirection from the real issue: when, and in what areas, will testing data show we have flattened the curve, reducing rate of spread to the point that, together with all prevention measures we can identify and deploy, we can intelligently reopen those work areas that are not now functional? Knowing what the data show can't happen until we have the data, which is rapidly being accumulated (now that testing is meaningfully ramping). But we don't have it now, so decisions, that necessarily have to be data driven, can't yet be made.
You and Dan Patrick forget that if as a nation we "all go back to work" before testing data, et al, show we have sufficiently reduced spread, instead of doing so in stages (and likely regionally), when testing results on the ground support the conclusion that we are, we would risk not just Dan Patrick's and your lives, but also the lives of every other person (including our health care workers) who would be much more likely to be adversely impacted by such an uninformed strategy.
"if we are all hiding under beds and no one is working ..." is just more inaccurate hyperbole that makes you feel better, but it hinders, not helps, intelligent analysis/discussion.
"food and supplies needed to survive will eventually run out" More hyperbole, this time, spreading unwarranted fear, a tactic you are so quick to criticize. Our country produces huge quantities of food and energy, and if we approach this intelligently and with patience, that will continue, as will the ability to put food on shelves and gasoline in our tanks.
Re: COVID-19 Virus Update - Mar 25
Let's just agree to disagree. I believe that the data from Asia is significant because of their much higher population density. You believe the Asians are understating the true numbers to cover up that they have thousand more dying. Eventually we will find out. None of us knows and there are plenty of conspiracy theories.
One thing that looks very strange is the low number of people recovering in the USA. With the best healthcare system in the world is it possible we have one of the lowest recovery rates.
One thing that looks very strange is the low number of people recovering in the USA. With the best healthcare system in the world is it possible we have one of the lowest recovery rates.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group