Oil & Gas Prices - April 3

[dan_s]

Opening Prices:
> WTI is up $1.93 to $27.25/Bbl, and Brent is up $4.24 to $34.18/Bbl.
> Natural gas is down 0.3c to $1.549/MMBtu.

Closing Prices:
> WTI prompt month (MAY 20) was up $3.02 on the day, to settle at $28.34/Bbl.
> NG prompt month (MAY 20) was up $0.069 on the day, to settle at $1.621/MMBtu.

EIA's weekly estimates are based on formulas that are heavily influenced by the trend. Over the last six weeks they have reported that U.S. crude oil production has been 13.0 to 13.1 million barrels per day.
The Department of Energy's 941 report is the first look at actual production by month, based on state reports.
Actual production of crude oil in the U.S. (bbls per day) for the last six months:
12,385,000 August
12,479,000 September
12,674,000 October
12,866,000 November < This is "Peal Oil" for the United States and we probably will never produce more than 13 million BOPD unless WTI is back at triple digits.
12,804,000 December
12,744,000 January

Much larger declines are on the way. By the end of June I expect U.S. oil production to drop to 12.0 mmbopd and we could drop below 10.5 mmbopd by year-end. Well completions will be down ~70% YOY. It would help if the "experts" at EIA would adjust their formulas.

[dan_s]

Goldman Sachs analyst Damien Courvalin expressed that “shale’s high-pressured wells and short drilling time mean the industry is well-positioned to benefit if the current plunge in oil causes long-term damage to production capacity, resulting in a price jump when demand returns.”

Read more: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/W ... e-War.html

This weekend's podcast will be based on the rule that "Anything that can't go on, won't". Today's oil price can't go on because it is lower than the finding & development costs to develop the oil supplies this world will need in the future.