What is really important these days

[dan_s]

1. Know the production mix of each upstream company you own. Why? Because the outlook for natural gas prices is MUCH BETTER than the outlook for oil prices.
2. Know the hedge position of each company that your own.

You can find both answers at the bottom of the company forecast/valuation models on the EPG website. You can also find the answers in the company's SEC filings, but you have to spend an hour digging for it.

This week I will finish reviewing most of the profile updates for the companies in our High Yield Income Portfolio. The companies have all been sold off with the energy sector and there are some high quality companies offer double digit dividend yields. We will be sending out an updated profile on MPLX on April 14.

Check out Sundance Energy (SNDE), up 63% today. This is what happens just when FEAR is reduced.
On 12/4/2019 Stifel published an update on SNDE with a price target of $68/share.
On March 9th and 13th, SunTrust Robinson and Northland Securities published new reports with price targets of $7.00/share, rating it a HOLD.
If a small-cap can just convince the Wall Street Gang that it can survive 2020, there can be some big moves in a lot of these companies.

Sundance is an Eagle Ford company that is about the same size as Lonestar Resources (LONE). It has ~50% of its 2020 crude oil hedged with collars that have floors at $56.01/bbl. If their average realized oil price in 2020 is just $35/bbl net of cash settlements on those hedges, the company should generate over $2.00 operating cash flow per share. Like Lonestar, the Company has not yet released Q4 results. Sundance is on my Watch List.