Oil & Gas Prices - May 22

[dan_s]

Opening Prices:
> WTI is down $1.20 to $32.72/Bbl, and Brent is down $1.17 to $34.89/Bbl.
> Natural gas is down 0.4c to $1.706/MMBtu.

Closing Prices:
> WTI prompt month (JUL 20) was down $0.67 on the day, to settle at $33.25/Bbl.
> NG prompt month (JUN 20) was up $0.021 on the day, to settle at $1.731/MMBtu.

Stifel:
Energy Infrastructure
Greenshoots Beginning to Appear for LNG Demand - Benjamin J. Nolan
The energy and power markets certainly caught the coronavirus. Demand for oil was down 24% in April yoy while imports of LNG were less bad but still down 17%. LNG was protected by its primary use as power consumption relative to oil. However, as various markets are coming out of quarantine, there has been a sharp increase in demand for LNG relative to other sources of energy for power. While prices are likely to remain low through the summer due to high inventory levels, should consumption improve quickly, we expect the LNG leveraged names like Cheniere (LNG, Buy, $44.69) and Chart Industries (GTLS, Buy, $37.21) could see a material recovery in the share price.

As I posted yesterday after listening to the Aegis Energy Webinar:
The overall natural gas market has several macro issues that should take today's over-supplied North American gas market to an under-supplied market by December, 2020:
1. Per EIA > North American natural gas supply will be down 8-10 Bcf per day from December, 2019 to December, 2020, primarily due to a significant drop in associated gas this year.
2. Thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic, global demand for U.S. LNG is down 2.5 to 3.0 Bcfpd day in Q2, but LNG demand should ramp back up in 2H 2020.
3. U.S. weather related demand was down in 1H 2020 (mild winter and cool spring), but demand for power generation is starting to ramp up and it should spike in July - Aug.
4. The big gassers (AR, RRC, COG, EQT) have also slashed their 2020 D&C budgets, so gas supply from Appalachia (Marcellus & Utica) will be flat to down YOY.
We should begin to see evidence of this stuff in the June natural gas storage reports.

[dan_s]

Stifel:
Teekay LNG Partners L.P. (TGP, $11.53, Buy; Target $16.00)
Teekay Has Taken Their Pound of Flesh, Now Time to Move On to Better Days - Benjamin J. Nolan

Teekay LNG reported results that were somewhat below what we had expected, but did lock in additional LNG time charter contracts which do protect cash flows against the challenging LNG shipping environment. Much of the focus has been on what we believe to be the poorly timed, highly dilutive, and unnecessary IDR buyout, but despite this misstep we believe TGP units are attractively valued trading at 4.5x earnings and a nearly 9% sustainable distribution yield

[grimaldi]

Just listened to your Podcast and I hope you are right about America getting back to normal soon.

As you know, I am in midtown Manhattan, and work for a huge corporation.
It seems to be totally in control of the Legal Department for the last three months,
and their focus is on liability lawsuits from employees suing them if they get Covid.

First the bosses told us to stay home, not come into the landmarked trophy building in Rockefeller Center.

I was not too upset, the paychecks keep arriving by mail, even though there is not much to spend it on.

NOW, 10 weeks on, the company is sending me, and everybody in my department,
really expensive equipment so we can work from home.

It's not just a computer,
we do network TV shows that have to be corrected as they move from the live east coast versions of shows
to the recorded playback in each succeeding time zone--- You have one hour to fix the next playback.
By the time the Today show gets to the West Coast, (where the big bosses are)
those shows have had all their tiny audio and video mistakes repaired by people like me,
and the several engineers I usually work with.
There is a lot of expense involved in doing this from an employee's apartment,
instead of in their long-ago sunk cost studios and digital rooms.

I am thinking that if Congress does not pass liability immunity from Covid for employers
that we will all be stuck at home for months if not longer-- just to avoid the possible suits.

Added to that, I have many friends who are choosing to stay in Florida all summer--
These are people who have summer homes in Newport or the Berkshires--
Can you even imagine how hot it must be in July and August in Florida?
Granted, all my friends are senior citizens, but they are too scared to get on planes.

I heard from my friend who has two children in the Police force,
who have many sick colleagues--- She is in Nebraska.

I am not at all afraid of getting sick, I know nobody who is sick, who I have met personally.

But I see the fear, over the masks, in the eyes of the doormen,
and the cashiers in stores that are open.

I see more and more small stores, not closed temporarily,
but with 'For Rent' signs.

We are a long way from the way we were.
That's the news from New York,
Joyce

[dan_s]

Joyce;
I know there is a lot of FEAR out there and I'm sure it is much worse in New York.
I agree that we need to get the lawyers out of the way.
I believe summer weather will help. All previous Coronaviruses die out in the summer, including the one that causes the common cold. With luck this one will too.

In Fort Bend County where we live (820,000 people) we've only had 41 deaths and only 1 in the last two weeks. 58% of deaths in Texas have been people over 70 and a high percentage had other very serious medical problems.
Also very interesting, only 490 of the 1,519 COVID-19 deaths in Texas have actually been confirmed to have been caused by SARS-COV-2. < I think the total number of people who have actually died from COVID-19 may end up being MUCH LOWER than what is being reported by the media.

Read this: https://townhall.com/tipsheet/mattvespa ... y-n2569367

I only know two people that had COVID-19. Both men in the mid-60s that had other medical problems. Both recovered quickly after taking hydroxychloroquine